Here's and edited transcript between a newbie and an old salt. The question boils down to, "Why would a old salt want to dive with a newbie?

Lydon wrote:

I looked at some of those pictures and you guys look like you certainly know how to dive! I have a few questions for you? I see in those pictures the majority are running doubles which I have never used before. Second, those scooters look awesome and I bet they are fun! I may just end up getting one if I like them. I’ve never used that kind of scooter before either, only the dumb downed doughnut scooters. Also, are you sure the other team members won’t think I'm a hindrance because of my skill level?

Matt Wrote:

I hope you can see the irony in this story.

I've been FAT all my life. I've recently lost over 40lbs the past 6 months. I've been going to LA fitness and taking the 1 hour cardio classes. The kick box cardio is my favorite and I've made friends with the instructor. He keeps telling me that I need to hit the free weights to build some muscle. I keep telling him I don't have the time or knowledge and I don't like any of the coaches enough to pay $40 for 30 minutes.

He said that he works out after the kick box class. Today we worked out together. He has been so impressed with my dedication to learning and doing everything he says in class, he see's in his mind how he can make me more of a physical success.

1 year of gym membership and I've never set foot in the "free weight" section of the gym. I didn't feel like I was worthy to hang out with "those guys". I don't know anything about working out with free weights. After an hour of working out I see the truth. Those fucking slobs don't put the god dam dumbbells back on the racks! :)

My friend also showed me how to see the "real" guys from the fakes. Anyone can have big gun arms and legs. That is easy. Very few have good abs and core because that is the hardest part. The abs are also usually covered by a shirt so it’s the hardest to show off.

From my limited first impression, I think you have the right core. We can build on the rest easily.

Lyndon’s Reply:

You are spot on with your analogy! I guess you are right with the concept of doing it the right way and in which is the most proficient and crucial to form a great foundation. I can’t agree more with the guys who throw up big weight to get those beach muscles but couldn't do a solid core routine if their life depended on it! Its true. Most people lift and lift so they can make up for something they don’t have rather than working out to be healthy and fit. You will notice the guys with huge arms have pencil legs!! They don’t want to put in the extra effort simply because they don’t care. Picking out a dedicated workout warrior than the jalopy doing only heavy bicep curls groaning and grunting loud so everyone can see them is comical!

I know that diving DIR is all about team work and becoming a more proficient diver while maintaining a safe attitude. What are some of the key things I should concentrate on while diving?

Matt Replied

What separates DIR from regular diving is awareness, that’s the abs or the core to great diving. You need to dive you gear enough that you forget about it and melts into your body. I'm sure football pads feel like a knight in body armor at first and now you don't feel them at all.

Next are the drills. We run the drills so much that heart no longer jumps at the thought of an Out of air drill (OOA). When you yawn in between donating the long hose and popping your back up in your mouth, you are ready for fundies.

Your buoyancy will come when you stop holding a full breath of air in your lungs and exhaling just a little between breaths. When the fear of drowning leaves the back of your head you'll breathe out of the "bottom" of your lungs and keep them empty. Just sip gas from the tank instead of hovering (Hoover the vacuum cleaner) it.

You awareness will be such that when you check your depth gauge you’ll know how much you've changed from your ears. When you check your bottom timer you'll know how much gas you have left in your tank. When you check your pressure gauge you'll know how long you have been down and how much time you have left.

We'll teach you how to "follow the fish" to the nearest wreck and how to know when your close to a wreck or out in open sand. You'll learn to read the wreck and see how it sunk and guess how long it has been down by how its falling apart.

Read the NOAA weather reports starting Thursday before the weekend. Then make note of the actual conditions. Its amazing how often it is wrong.

http://a1aweather.com/

During the dive, make notes on what you are going to write in your dive reports. Write the dive reports with the good and not so good, mistakes, and what your learned. Post them to E-divers and other sites. Be humble and non-defensive when the comments come flowing in. If you are humble the comments will be calm. If you are proud, arrogant and defensive the crap will keep flowing until you give up. :)

http://www.miamiwreck.org/reports/111503.htm

You and I are the most dangerous kind of divers. You don't know anything and I know everything, but I stop following rules because I think I know better. Together we become the safest divers because I will role model ideal diving and you'll follow it. You'll be aware of any mistakes and call me on it and not let me slide. Cutting corners and letting experienced divers slide is a called a "trust me" dive.

When I get to arrogant, someone will cut me down to size. All my sins are published on the internet for any who remembers or care to research. That keeps me humble at all times.

I’ve had many, many, many dive mentors over my 11 years of diving. Names like William, Ed, Eric, Lesley, Brian, JC (no not that one, the other one), Jody, Buck, Charlie, Robert and all those I can’t think of right now.

Best regards,

--Matt

Boca Dive Spearing Shark

Boca Dive Spearing Shark
Originally uploaded by netmage_2112.

This letter explains my feelings better than anything I could have written.

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This makes me sick. Here is a copy of the email I sent the shop. I hope if you
are as outraged as I, you'll send something similar.

I am extremely disturbed by your images of a speared nurse shark. This is
extremely irresponsible and I can not believe that you would not only condone
but encourage this atrocious behaviour.

Sharks are endangered across the planet. Slow maturity rates, finning, and a
falsely earned reputation as man-eaters have earned sharks a place on the
endangered species list. You claim that the shark in the photo survived.. for
how long? Will it survive next time?

I can not and will not frequent your shop until these actions stop. I agree that
spearfishing is a valid hunting technique, but the first rule of hunting is know
your prey. Your claim that unwanted catch will be used to feed the less
fortunate may not apply to all species. Sorry, I don't buy it.

I am sure that you will be hearing from many divers both in Florida and from
around the world. I will also be sending a copy of this message to PADI and the
other certifying agencies - if you encourage this reckless, irresponsible
behavior on your charters, what are you teaching your students.

Please reconsider this promotion. For all our sakes.

Tim Meehle
CEO
Reefshark Systems, LLC

Photos of the Ophelia Brian: http://www.flickr.com/photos/tiswango/tags/ofeliabrian

Don't get your hopes up about the photos, they are pretty bad. The ocean was flat black oil as we cruised out around light house at Key Biscayne.

Ophelia Brian

The current was running about .7 knots as we ran over the new artificial reef, the 210ft freighter Ophelia Brian formally the Sea Taxi. I was diving with Kevin Carby and as we planned I explained that is a good skill to learn to drop down 100ft in under 1 minute from getting off the boat.

The boat captain gave us a good 100ft drop and we hit the water. A quick ok and we swam down. I landed right on the stack and saw that we were getting blown off fast so I grabbed the rail and got out of the current. Kevin landed next to me and relaxed. The vis was about 20ft.

The right side of my new mask was fogging up making it hard to read my depth gouge and watch. I kept clearing it and took a quick look around the stern. The wreck is bare rusty metal and spray paint marking the groups that help make the new reef possible. I fired up the camera to document a few of the markings.

A section has been cut out making access to the engine room easy. We didn't do any penetration on this dive. The cut out has some very rough edges that could do a number on my dry suit. On the main deck the door to the interior has large screws still in place that could easily puncture a dry suit or a wing bladder. Please be aware, I took a pic just in case you don't believe me!

We dropped down into the cargo hold and swam for the bow. There were a few pieces of concrete culvert in the cargo hold, but not as much as say the Princess Brittney. I would have liked to have seen more concrete in the cargo hold as otherwise there is no shelter for the fish. When the wreck collapses the concrete will hold up the sides and make a great habitat for a longer period of time.

The bow a large mast supported by three cables so it should last a while. I was sad to see the bow winch was removed before sinking. Hopefully it raised some money towards the sinking of the ship. Usually the bow winch is home to the juvenile fish and is one of the most interesting areas of a artificial wreck reef.

We then swam back to the stern, low on the deck to stay out of the current. The main deck offers access to what is left of the gallery and the windless is still on the stern. I'll wait for a calmer day light dive to penetrate the inner sections of the stern.

All in all its great to have another large freighter in recreational depths off Miami. The last ship was the "Dema Trader" sunk in 2003 in honor of Dema being held in Miami.

Emerald Reef

As we were gearing up, we were looking at the four new mooring balls with a 1.5mil handheld light. The fish were jumping out of the water in a big boil. Something big was down there!

We dropped in on the 20ft reef to check out the new morning balls and play with the scooters. Rick didn't have a chance to buzz around on a Gavin in a while. Rick's primary light failed. It was flickering on and off which seemed to me to be a cord issue. We surfaced and the boat came up and we exchanged the lights in the water and dropped back down to play some more.

A school of small tomtates went flying by and then I saw what was causing all the concern. 5 4-6ft greater amberjacks were feeding on the reef fish. The lights didn't phase the fish at all as they charged all three of us. I used the Gavin as a sheild, but the fish came right at us. I was hit in the chest, legs, and back several times. Rick and Jody were as well. We tried to go back to back to defend ourselves, but is hard to fend off a fish that is faster, more agile, and has three dimensions of water to swim in. After a few minutes they took off and left us alone.

We cruised up and down the reef. Found several spotted and spiny lobster out for a walk. We surfaced after an hour and headed it.

The air temp was 55 degrees. I puffed up my dry suit and was quite comfortable on the way home. Every one else bundled up to stay warm. Overall we still had a great time even with the bad vis and high currents! I really enjoyed watching the moon seen in a blood red color after midnight as we came back in across the bay.

It was beautiful trip out to the Ultra Freeze. Jody and David jumped in to find the anchor. They had a nice reef dive as they didn't make contact with the wreck. They did make contact with some kite fisherman on breaking the surface. :)

Matt, Mike and Lee has a slow descent, hit the wreck. Searched for a good 20 minutes but with no luck. Lots of anchors and rope, but none of them usable.

Jody and David made a second trip down. No luck from them either.

On the way in we had a crash course on the use of radar. We had a Bogey at close range that could not be seen until we stopped and searched without looking thru the curtains. We found a 22-25ft boat with no stern running lights and only the bow navigation lights on. After finding the boat we approached slowly. During the first attempt to over take them, they turned and cut us off causing a second full stop. After zigging, we zagged past. Clear sailing after that. Mike mentioned that it was too bad the boat didn't have a horn. I found the button and gave a few blasts. Then I couldn't remember the official blasts. I looked it up on line for fun.

I understand that a stupid boater isn't going to have the foggiest what the horn blasts mean?
Sound Signals
There are five basic sound signals a boater should know. I will briefly outline them. Should you require more information on sound signals and the Rules of the Road, the Coast Guard and Coast Guard Auxiliary recommend that you take an appropriate safe boating course. The Coast Guard Auxiliary provides several courses, which include this information, as well as our Boat Crew program for members of the Auxiliary.
Sound signals are broken into two types, long and short blasts. Short blast lasts for 1 to 3 second and a long blast from 4 to 6 seconds.
You will normally hear these sets of sound signals:
1 short blast and 2 short blasts which signify intent and acceptance in overtaking situations.
Three (3) short blasts signifying a vessel in astern propulsion (as when a boat is backing out of a slip)
Five (5) short blasts, which signifies danger or disagreement.
One long blast, which is meant as a warning that I am about to move from a position, which may be blind to you. You’ll use/hear this signal when your about to leave a slip (either in forward or astern propulsion), where the master of the vessel is blind to possible approaching traffic from the main waterway or as you are about to round bend in a waterway (like a river).

DSCN6750
Originally uploaded by tiswango.

STS-119 Discovery Launch Sunday 3/15 at 7:45 PM. We were driving North of Krome Ave, almost to the Casino when we saw a fireball in the sky. A quick google on my cell phone confirmed it was the shuttle launch 200 miles away. The night was clear and the sun was amazing! The sun was setting to the top of the trail is lighter than the bottom. There was a big white cloud where the shuttle punched thru the atmosphere. It looked like a whole was ripped in the sky and bruised from the penetration of humans leaving their home to venture to where they know not of.

At the Beach in August

Originally uploaded by Ana Gamba.

I was looking thru Ana and Charlie Gamba's photos and found this one of us at the beach in Fort Lauderdale. Since swimming lessons, the boys have gotten much more comfortable in the water. The love splashing and playing now. I can't wait until next summer!

Bodhisattva Vow

bodhisattva Vow
Originally uploaded by tiswango.

The Four Great Vows:

I vow to liberate all beings, without number (Green)

I vow to uproot endless blind passions (Red)

I vow to penetrate dharma gates beyond measure (Blue)

I vow to attain the way of the Buddha (Yellow and Black)
Posted a moment ago.

I read this in the latest book from the Dali Lama and decided to paint it. This is how it made my feel.

Friday Night Bike and Dine

PA036663
Originally uploaded by tiswango.

So how else can we use the bikes? How about going for dinner? Humm, that's a crazy idea that just might work. After picking our range and what was available we decided to try the new Japanese buffet that replaced the IHOP next to Sedanos on 58th and 107th.

We loaded the boys up for the 15 minute ride over there. One spot the street is missing the curb so Andrea had to help lift the boys trailer back on the side walk. The sling they sit on doesn't have any padding. I took them off a curb one and Ev started crying. It was too much of a jolt for him. I thought he would like it?

We got there and I found a tree to tie up our rides. There were no bike racks. The boys love the noodles and rice. Nathan and Everett both managed to eat some food with chopsticks. Then our server gave us the kiddie version with rubber bands and spacer. They did well eating and stabbing the food.

We loaded back up and headed home. There was some brief crying before they passed out and went to sleep. We road past the house to the frontage road behind our house and to the Doral Meadows park for a quick lap to look at the little league games.

On the way there we were riding into a thunder head with a beautiful lightening going from cloud to cloud. I thought of the songs written in Black Elk Speaks. I just finished reading the book.

On the way home, the heat lightening turned to crackling ground to air lightening with thunder 10 seconds behind it. We picked up the pace and headed home. We got everything packed up before it rained. It felt like it was going to be a big rain, but it sputtered a little bit and then nothing. Just like the end of Black Elks book.

Riding Shark Valley 10/5

PA036664
Originally uploaded by tiswango.

Sunday we loaded up our gear and food for a picnic at Shark Valley. Its a 17 mile one lane road that makes a loop in the Everglades. 8 miles in there is a 4 story observation tower with no civilization in site. Several months ago we paid the $15 per person for the 2 hour tram ride with 20 minutes stop at the tower. It wasn't long enough and I dreamed of riding the trail.

Driving there was cloudy with the threat of rain. We were ready to call the ride before we got started. The park road was flooded with 6 inches of water flowing across. The park ranger said the tram was closed due to flooding for 4 days and we could ride 6 miles in on either side of the loop to where they had to close the trail.

We arrived 10 minutes late and cell phones were useless so we couldn't contact Lee and Carmen who were supposed to join us. We loaded up and headed out.

The water was right up to the road. Creatures would jump back into the water as we road past. We saw several groups of baby alligators knowing mom was not far away even if we couldn't see her. One 6 foot gator was laying on the side of the road. He was completly unimpressed with my new bike! I left the camera in the car fearing a big downpour.

1 hour later at 3 miles in the boys started crying. Andrea didn't pack the diaper bag or picnic food as we were going to come back to eat. But that also left the milk bottles back in the car. We tried one some water and turned to head back.

After some crying they both passed out and went to sleep. I parked the bike and trailer and ate while they slept. 10 minutes later Lee and Carmen came off the trail!

They had rented bikes and went to the end and back. There were ahead and behind us. They ate with us and Andrea and I got to know Carmen a bit. She is a new member of SFL-DIR.

The boys woke up and ate. We shared some stories and loaded up again to ride the other side. There were more herons and egrets on this side. We went 2 miles in before turning aorund due to time. Lee and Carmen had to get the rental bikes back or pay a late fee.

We parted company and headed back to civilation. Were nutes, but I love going on these weekend adventures!

We Got Bikes!

PA036667_edited-1
Originally uploaded by tiswango.

Andrea wanted to get out and exercise more. She wanted to get bikes and thought that would be fun to spend some of her bonus on. We went to Bike Tech off Bird Road (SW40th) and had a great experience. We tried on many bikes and went thru all the options. It took over three hours to go from test ride to installing the bike rack, loading up and heading home.

I picked out a Specialize RockHopper. It has the 19" frame, 26" wheels, the Rox Shox 3, spring loaded with lock out for road riding and cantilever brakes. There just is no need for disc in FL and they are higher maintenance.

Andrea picked out the Specialized Carmel Hybrid bike. She had her heart set on an Electra with "flat feet technology" where the peddles are forward so when you stop you are not on your tippy toes, but can put your foot flat on the ground. Her legs were not long enough to take advantage of this. Riding the Carmel just felt right for her. She picked gray to match her dry suit.

One of Andrea's co-workers was nice enough to give us the two seat bike trailer for the boys. I hooked it up to my bike and have no problem towing them around. However, after a ride with them I love to take it off and go for a spin. I feel like I'm flying without the extra drag!

Goliath Grouper at Hole in the Wall

P9146650
Originally uploaded by tiswango.

After an hour boat ride back North we got to the site. We took a 90 minute SI before jumping back into the water. The visibility was not as good around 50ft. We got down and hit the ledge. We would blow by groups of 5 and 10 Goliath grouper in the 200-400lb range. David's scooter didn't hold out for the second drop so he put it into tow position and Ron help keep him on the reef. After 15 minutes of drifting we hit the hole in the wall with about 30 Goliath around. The hole was packed with them as well.

I seconded guess penetraing in, but decided it was worth to move in slowly and the VW bug sized fish would move out of my way. If you close at the picture you can see just how many fish were there in just on shot.

After the Hole we hit one more group and then it was just the local fish. There were large Horse Eye Jacks that were pitch black and ready to mate. Small Juvenile fish close to the reef.

Everyone made it back to the boat and we headed back to the dock. I figured my arms were sore from loading the boat. I was wasted by the time we got all the gear back off. The marina is under construction and loading and unloading is not easy at this point. Once finished it will be a great location.

Diving the Ande off WPB

P9146617
Originally uploaded by tiswango.

I was not happy to be right. After loading the gear by humping tanks up and over the gunnal of the boat at high tide we headed out. On the way out the inlet, Randy said that there was reported black water North of Jupiter Inlet going out to 170ft. This report was collaborated by Mike Barnett the week before. We could skip the Mulphin and try for the Ranking and a reef or head south to the Ande and hit Hole in the Wall on the way back up. There was a Goliath Grouper Spawning aggregation at the Hole that would be leaving after the full moon in two days. We decided to take the sure thing.

Our dive profiles just dropped 20ft to 190ft on Ande and 140ft at the Hole in the wall. I had brough my 18/45 because it was already filled and 21/35.

I took over an hour at 8 knots. We geared up, did out checks as the captian ran over the wreck one more time. Ops, there was no wreck. He had the wrong coordinates in the GPS. We had another 20 minutes south to go. David doffed his gear to avoid overheating.

We cheered after finding the wreck and got ready to dive. We had a 400ft lead and Randy said the currents can run slightly East so be ready to head West. After we splashed I saw something fall under David, I dove and caught the hub to Davids Gavin and gave him the broken scooter sign. He had dialed it down to full speed and the pitch held so he could use it on the dive. There was 1.5 knot current and we needed it.

The wreck was not dove much and covered with fishing line. I found some waving in the current 30ft off the side of the wreck. The lights were very useful for finding this.

The stern was listing to starboard. The cargo hold was broken just before the bridge and mostly upright. It was not a clean break and ripped speices jutted out from both sides. At the bow, the main mast was still upright and beautiful in the blue water.

I stopped and got my team to do some fly overs for photos. My scooters trim had changed to nose down, but still just slightly negative, I wondered what was wrong as it didn't seem flooded? The current was also taking all the strengh out of my right arm. I usually shoot with one hand and drive with the other, but fighting the current was taking its toll.

After 20 minutes I was feeling task loaded so I put the camera away and scootered around the wreck. At the stern, the updraft was so strong it held the Gavin in place at full speed. I went over the mast and followed it up and we prepared for deco.

Our ascent and deco ran perfectly. Excpet for one stop I overstayed as I got into the medatative zone. From there up I had fun making eyes at David and Ron to make them thinkt the stop was over too soon without making the hand signal. Its amazing how dialed in a team can get!

Preparing for the Ande Dive

DSC_1662
Originally uploaded by tiswango.

Getting ready to dive the Mulphin and Rankin, I had some interesting email debates with my team. I found that I had some assumptions that my teammates didn't . The debate didn't really boil down to whose right and wrong so much as two stubborn people were arguing for acknowledgement.

When choosing gasses for 170ft dive and 120ft dive it was trimix and 21/35 all the way with 50% deco. In fact I offered. For the experience cave diver, 32% and 100% deco was a fine strategy proven over and over again in Ginnie. The difference being that Ginnie, with exception of water level, doesn't change. The ocean is constantly changing and many factors can affect a dive plan.

Oceanic dive plans can change on a dime. I knew WPB offered even more intense issues of current, black water, wave height and surge. Not to mention the possibility of an unfriendly fishing boat covering our dive site.

With this in mind 21/25 with 50% for the first dive and 100% for the 2nd dive became the plan.

On the surface interval David wanted to see how he'd look in an Optima?

The $45.6 trillion Credit Default Swap Crash vs. the $700 bil Sub Prime Crash

I found this posted in the comment section of a news article. I have not verfied the background or facts. It is an intestesting opinion to read with a grain of salt.

--Matt

=================================================================================

This isn't going to settle out until after the Credit Default Swap payoff auctions on Oct 23. Only then will everyone know just how exposed everyone else is. Many banks will fail no matter what the government does. But many will also survive and once shown to be sound their business will resume.
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What is scary to me about this is the way governments are taking over ownership of private sector financial institutions and private industry. Just think of the banks being run like the IRS or the Post Office - and by the very same people with political mandates. While it would hurt, it would be better to just let many of these banks fail and be replaced with new ones. All this life support is going to do is lead to perpetually sick banks run by politicians for political purposes.
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Guess I will repost this for those who didn't see it the first time. Skip it if you have seen it already.
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The $45.6 trillion Credit Default Swap Crash vs. the $700 bil Sub Prime Crash
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All of this because 5% of U.S. mortgages are defaulting? This 5% isn’t that big a number compared to the world financial markets. After all, the other 95% are still paying and yielding a cash flow. So if sub primes didn’t cause this what is going on?
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What is going on is a Credit Default Swap caused crash. A CDS is a form of insurance on loans that pays off if the loan defaults. CDS are totally unregulated and un-monitored by any government agency. CDS are not called insurance because insurance is regulated. If it was called insurance, and regulated, the issuers of the policies would be required to have assets enough to cover any claims. But it isn’t insurance. And it turns out the issuers of CDS never had the assets to cover any claims – even a small claim like the sub prime mortgage defaults. If they had paid off the sub prime defaults everyone would have their money and there would be no bailout.
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The banks and financial institutions that issued unregulated CDS made billions collecting the premiums (but they are not called premiums because it isn’t insurance). But when the sub prime backed instruments started to default they couldn’t pay off because they had no assets to pay off with. AIG is one example. And everyone noticed and started to worry.
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The real problem is that CDS were not sold to cover just mortgages loans. They were sold to cover almost every kind of lending instrument. Obviously, a bond that is insured against defaulting is more valuable and higher rated than one that is not insured. So once the CDS began defaulting on the subprime market it became obvious they were worthless insurance on everything else they insured, which is just about everything else out there. So the value of every bond, hedge fund and other investment instrument dropped on the books of every institution holding them. And they dropped fairly sharply.
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And then there are the CDS themselves. They were on the books as an income producing investment instrument just like a bond from a legitimate insurance company. Now they are virtually worthless. How much were they worth before the truth about them was revealed? $42.6 TRILLION. For perspective, this is equal to the entire household wealth of the U.S.; the U.S. stock market is capitalized at $18.5 trillion. So what really has happened is that the global financial markets have just taken a $42.6 trillion dollar loss of assets.
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Our recent bailout is only $700 billion, a tiny fraction of the outstanding CDS and not enough to make a tiny tiny dent in the debt the financial institutions are now holding. So what did our elected officials just do? They bailed out their campaign donors and gave them a chance to cash in their chips and leave the game with some cash in their pockets.
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The sub prime defaults are just a minor diversion that takes your eyes off what has really happened. Huge companies, here and abroad, (CDS started in Europe) committed a fancy complicated form of fraud. They sold insurance that wasn’t really insurance, collected billions in “premiums” that pumped up their books and made billions for their executives and brokers. They often issued a CDS to a buyer to pump up the price of a bond or financial instrument they were selling and thus increased their profits two ways.
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If a real regulated insurance company had done this the executives would all be indicted, prosecuted and put in jail for a long time. It was fraud and I hope our government will go after these weasels and put them in jail. But I doubt that will happen.
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The problem right now is that no one knows who is holding what or even how to begin to value holdings. The value of holdings of all kinds have clearly dropped. But by how much? In the sub prime mortgage market, for example, the houses are still out there and clearly they have some considerable value. But how much? The same holds across all the markets. The tangible assets securing most of the loans are still out there. But what are they worth now? We are about to see a huge 100 year shake out on the value of everything and everyone is going to take a hit. The more leveraged any business or individual is the more they are going to devalue. And that is another new aspect of this crash.
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Super low interest rates made borrowing possible – smart – at rates that would have been unthinkable 20 years ago. 20 years ago being leveraged at a 5 to 1 rate was the normal limit. Today 30 to 1 is normal. 4% interest rates simply could not be ignored and go unused. Hedge funds with 4% interest rates made extreme leveraging even more extreme for large investors and funds. It turns out some hedge funds had 100 to 1 leveraging. (Hedge funds are another unregulated market) So our entire economy, the businesses, the banks, individuals are credit extended like never before in history. So they are all going to be devalued like never before. This is going to be the perfect financial storm. And it isn’t going to end anytime soon.
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A lot of companies are going to fail – unavoidably. There is going to be a lot of unemployment. A lot of retirement funds are going to fail – including government backed retirement funds like state funds. And the U.S. government cannot bail them all out. But it will try at first. And the government will have unemployment claims and welfare claims like never before. And all this will cause another problem that will cause more pain. Inflation.
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Inflation like we haven’t seen in decades. Because the only way the government will have to pay off its debts – and they are going to be huge, even compared to our present huge debt – is to print money. Lots of money.
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We are going to see something unthinkable in the past. High unemployment, bankruptcies, banks closing and a very slow economy, BUT with high inflation because every government in the world is going to print money to try and bail things out.
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What to do? Getting out of debt would be a good idea. Cash is good – but vulnerable to inflation. Gold is better. Start minimizing your expenses in every way possible. If you are about to retire don’t. Keep the job if the job is still there. If your retirement fund doesn’t go bust, inflation will devalue the retirement payments. Things will settle out. The economy will restart. New companies will be started to replace the ones who go under. The sun will come out again. But not for a long time.

Catepillars have eaten every leaf!!!

Scarlet Milkweed
Originally uploaded by tiswango.

Butterfly Gardening question for you? The caterpillars have shredded every leaf off my two 3ft tall milkweeds and 5 3" tall baby plants I started from seed. The gulf fertility have eat every last weed off my 3ft tall passion vine. There are three more baby's on the vine and no leaves left.

Should I be concerned? Should I peel them off until the plant comes back?

Or

Is this the natural cycle and they the plants will come back when the butts are done laying eggs?

Unlocked Gate to Kerr Dam Powerplant

Unlocked Gate to Kerr Dam Powerplant
Originally uploaded by tiswango.

Unlocked Gate to Kerr Dam Powerplant

As part 2 to my locked fire hydrant picture, here's the unlocked Kerr Dam Power Plant Facility. Now, what is wrong with this picture. A fire hydrant used to protect personal property is locked, but a power plant with three generators supplying power to 120,000 households is unlocked and there is no video surveillance. Anyone can drive down to the dam and walk right up to this gate. In all honesty, it tells me that we are under very little threat from terrorists. Little things are being done that can be seen and felt like locked fire hydrants and 3 oz bottles of liquid in your carry on at airports so you can avoid the $50 checked bag fee.

Homeland Security Locked This Fire Hydrant

Homeland Security Locked This Fire Hydrant
Originally uploaded by tiswango.

Homeland Security Locked This Fire Hydrant

Yes, believe it or not, Homeland Security has ordered that every fire hydrant in the US be "locked" to protect us from terrorists. There was a home in Mission Bay Montana that caught first last year. Neighbors kept the first under control with garden hoses until the first department arrived. They took over and everything went well, until the tanker truck went dry. They couldn't find the key and get the hydrant unlocked. In the mean time the fire kicked back up and finished off the rest of the house. I guess that puts another win in the terrorist column.

Tropical Storm FAY

Everett's and Nathan's first hurricane!

Sunday July 13th SFL-DIR Afternoon Dive

Mike and Kim took us out on Fish Food. The boat was comfortably full. David was diving with our new member Lee and Keat to get ready for DIR F. Andrea and I were taking the scooters out for another run. I want to get it in the water one more time before taking it deeper. Mike dropped Bob on the tie off and then dropped us in the middle of the rock pile betten the United Caribbean and Sea Emperor. It was perfect, we headed east and hit the Noula Express bow in 3 minutes!

I turned the pitch and just stared at the bow section of the wreck. I was putting it back together in my mind's eye. The new angles are very cool. I love the fact this wreck is right next to the reef line for more fish. We cruised over the cargo area and the submarine. The stern looked really abused. Almost like it turned some. Going around to the rear, the swing thur looked like it had been crushed or collapsed. I wasn't going in there. We drifted down the bottom on the stern enjoying the flow of water water. There was quite a mix between 82 and 77 degree water all over.

We scootered south down the reef and went from patch to patch. We didn't hit the rock pile, but ran right into the culverts of the Sea Emperor. We cruised looking in all the corners. I didn't see the batfish on the South edge of the barge. We floated down the West facing edge. Quite a bit of fish life I never noticed before as all the action for divers is on the East side.

There was no nurse sharks or Goliath under the barge. The swim thru looked big enough to fit thru, but I knew Andrea wouldn't be cool with that. We drifted over the culverts again and headed out for the rock pile. Ther was another dive boat over head and I looked up from the DM making the tie, but I think out bubbles scared them off temporary. Capt. Mike knew our dive plan and probably radioed over.

We passed two divers on the rock pile back to the United Caribbean. The poor goatfish didn't know if we were coming or going. There were cruising to both sides trying to get out of the way.

The UC was all tore up from my last trip. The stern had rolled over on the port side. The cargo walls were broken off and the bow just sat there. We looked for the other team. There were on the starboard side heading for the bow. PERFECT set up, I told the team I would try to surprise them. We went down to the sand and headed around the point of the bow. Keat was in the lead and looking at the wreck as I started to flash him an OOA. He looked back at his team and everything was just fine. Confused he looked forward into the light and saw my open mouth in disbelief. Then he deployed is long hose and went to his back up. He was 5 seconds from a head on collision with the Gavin. Add, "knocking out diver underwater and taking their gas supply" as another scooter benefit! On the boat, we were joking about the Planet Earth Disk 4 diaries showing the hot air balloon crashing into the Balboa tree.

Lee was looking really good in the water and was paying close attention to what was going on. We scootered past and headed to the stern. I couldn't resist scootering down the port side hallway and back out. My new Dive Rite First stages to a full impact at the end as I missed the exit by a few inches. Looking around the rear I wanted to make it up on the Starboard side and did it again, perfectly!

Andrea headed back to the line and we started our ascent. The mixed temp water was going to cause some current up shallow. I adjusted the pitch of my prop and stayed with the line in the current with the scooter. Andrea stopped scootering and went for the line. I kept looking for her and didn't get a problem or issue? Why was she doing things the hard way?

At 40ft the current was up to .5 knot or more and she strained to get the scooter tow cable thru the handle and clipped off to the line so she had two hands to hold on. What the scooter dead? I kept mine live and watched what was going on so that I had the most options if Andrea or the scooter came loose. At the surface, we were tied in bow first with no granny line. The scooter was floating there and Andrea had let go and went back to the stern. The current was ripping and the waves were moving the line.

Staying calm under stress, I held my scooter and the line with one hand. I worked her scooter free and clipped it off to my D ring and get it behind my legs. Now I can drift back to the boat. After letting go, I just got my scooter on to pull me out from hitting the bow of Fishfood.

I grabbed the tag line as I flew past the stern. The small poly line slipped thru my gloves like butter. The current and drag of two scooters was pulling me back. I held on as Kim pulled me in. I handed up Andrea's scooter first. Then got mine up and me back on the boat. Yipes that was not fun!

On the boat I debriefed with Andrea. What was wrong with the scooter? "Nothing" she said. Why did you stop being a scooter diver and grab the line? "Because I don't like current. The scooter was pulling her forward and she couldn't get the prop pitch right. Well she didn't the right thing be not getting behind the up line with the scooter as that would be when it fails. But if she stayed scootering, it would have been a lot easier for both of us. We will work on adjusting speed on the next dive.

We had a full gale storm on and rough seas on the 40 minute trek South to Lighthouse ledge. I stayed in my gear and tried to stay warm in the cold freshwater rinse.

We decided to leave the scooters behind and drift in the nice current with the other team. Andrea and I got into Zen dive mode and tuned into the fish. I missed her signal to see the Long snout butterfly fish right as we got down. I did see the green moray being cleaned by 5 neon gobies and several Spanish Hogfish juveniles.

Not being able to hold back I had to get into the drills with Keat and Lee. Valve drills and S drills were looking good. They had a good command of the basic 5. I blew some bubbles by purging the back up reg to see how the reacted. Lee was right there. Keat developed a new technique of closing both valves at the same time. This really saves gas. I was worried he was going to cause a real OOA so I hovered at his face with my long hose in front of his nose. He stopped and completed a valve drill so he was set back to normal.

At the end of the dive I surfaced first. David was winding up the reel so I pushed the dive flag down to him to make him thing he was coming up. He had a classic look on his face when he was at 5 feet, saw the flag float and then I let go of it to bring him up.

David did a great job of running thru and how's and why's of DIR diving. He also explained the need for the skills dives to get past thinking about the gear and just diving as a team. Andrea said that she is still thinking about the scooter too much and not enjoying the dive yet. She just needs more time, dives, and practice.

Amazon.com: The Alchemy of Finance (Wiley Investment Classics): George Soros, Paul A. Volcker: Books

I've heard the name George Soros and decided to check out another successful investor besides Warren Buffet and Benjamin Graham. This book is one of those books that took a corner stone concept in my mind and pulled the rug out from underneath it!

I finished two economics classes at Iowa State with a B-. The two concepts that stick with me are Marginal Utility and Supply and Demand. Marginal Utility states that there is a U shaped curve the the demand for a product. The first donut is really good. The second is almost as good. The third is the top of the curve, I've had enough. The fourth decrease my enjoyment and the fifth gives me a tummy ache making me worse off that when I started eating donuts.

The second concept was supply and demand. The power of glorious capitalism and miracle of supply and demade to sort out any issue when it comes to how much of what to produce? The first thing George taught was that supply and demand are NOT plotted on the same curve. Supply is completely separate from demand. The second thing is that for the two curves to be on the same graph, it was require "perfect knowledge" of suppliers and demanders. Just as a Marxist command economy does not have the perfect knowledge of what and how much to produce, neither does the market.

The advantage of the market is that with cycles and periods of boom and bust, expansion and contraction the economy drives forwards. Its just that there is a manic depressive psychopath at the wheel and a lot of people get run over along the way.

The major benefit of Marxism is that the economy is much more stable. Some may say there is less opportunity, but there is certainly less up and down.

The major benefit of the Markets is that there is instability, wide changes, and lots of opportunity to make and loose and fortune. But why are things so unstable. George was writing at time of credit boom and cheap money made for cop orate merger mania. Credit was contracting and driving down the value of collateral. Gee, just what is happening with now withe burst housing bubble. I just need to figure out what George did and then I can do the same thing!

Not quite that easy. The next super cool concept was "Reflective Connection" between ideas. His point is that the markets are not scientific, but closer to quantum physics. The act of studying a "thing" effects how the thing reacts. That is a much deeper understanding of the bi-polar Mr. Market. Why aren't there drugs to regulate this problem? Its called the government. The issue is, as a boom takes shape. No one can stop it. Everyone rides the tide until the bust. Then the contraction takes place and creates a crisis. Only a crises can bond affected parties together to remedy the situation.

Take our housing boom. Could the government really do anything to stop it? Not really, except raise interest rates, but would have affected other sectors. Could Bank of America stop participating and stop it from happening? Not really, if they didn't make the loans, someone else would have. Not that the bust is here, BOA can buy Country wide, all the banks will tighten lending strategies and a lot of mortgage brokers will be looking for other jobs. The Government couldn't forcee the new bundle mortgage derivative product, so it didn't regulate it. Now in hindsight, regulations will be put into place to prevent this type of bubble from occurring again. But don't despair, it 10, 15 or 20 years, a new bubble will form and the same thing will happen again, just in a different way. Regulation is necessary, but not preventative.

Now this is the depressing part. It takes a crisis to get all the parties to focus on an issue and get it under control. As soon as the pressure of the crisis is over so will the teamwork. Then business will go about as usual. We never fix anything, we just band aid it and move on. Pick any topic you want, and you'll see the same thing. This is why the boom lasts longer than the bust. The bust is painful, but never as long as the boom. You just have to muddle thru it until the next bubble starts to form somewhere else.

This is inherit in free markets and explains the misconception that markets are supposed to bring stability as equilibrium is reached. Instead, they lead swinging extremes of boom and bust, expansion and contraction. Things are always better than they really are or worse than they really are. Its just a matter of following the trend and not being the last one out the door when the trend reverses.

Perhaps that's a better detailed explanation of the cliche, "Bulls make money and Bears make money but Pigs get slaughtered." The trend will always reverse, its just that know one knows when or why? They make up the why after it happens and attribute it to some event that is probably more coincidence than reality. That's why you feel bad thinking, "Man, I never so that coming!" But the next time "that" happens, it doesn't turn a trend. Humm, that's the Reflective part!

The beginning third of Geoges book was great. The experiment was waaayyy over my head. The end, like the market was a bust. There was no "secert" to making money in this crazy economy. No magic bullet that worked in the 80s and now will work in 2008.

What George did teach me was not what anyone wants to hear. He said that when he was studing specific events. His trading went to hell. When he wasn't paying attention any more, his trading when to hell. When he was actually writing down and journaling the thought process behind his trading he did much better. There is a word for this. Its in every self help book on the planet. Got it yet?

Its called, "Goal Setting"! By writing down his plan, George was making a goal. When the market went against the trade, George held on, past the point of normally jumping ship and reversing himself. Most of the time that worked. Some of the time, he got whacked. Reading the experiment section, he dwells on the losses to the point you think he is not making any more. Until you see tha stuff that is working is up and he does 120% in one year!

So its less of what your do and more about why your doing it? What is your goal, what is your plan? Write it down!

Not knowing how to make money in a down market, I just went to cash. After 6 months, I stopped following the markets and looking to get in. I've missed a few rallies. Now I'm getting in with my few favorite stocks with a buy and hold as they are all 50% off their value.

True story, I meant to sell my 100 shares of Panera Bread at $38 which would have been a loss from buying at $55. I clicked the wrong button and put in a buy order. Which was filled before the price dropped to around $30. Oh I was pissed. But it was a great price on a good company. PNRA is the only stock I'm up on right now. I've picked up some GRMN, and HANS as they are two favorites from the past. I will hold them thru a year for the lower tax rate, but then, they will be back up and they are the kind of stocks that will run up. I also plan to start selling covered calls on them.

I've picked up some SIGM Sigma Designs as that stock is a fav of my optometrist. Chicos, CHS, is featured in Rule #1 and I lost a bundle buying at $30, $20, and selling for a loss. Its down to $5 now and the company is still strong, it just needs to reorganize so it can turn around. I'm still 60% in cash, but now I'm back in the game and it feels good to "worry" about not check the markey and prices as now I have something to watch. While I'm there, I'm looking to see what is the next big boom or bust and how can I profit from it?