Sunday July 13th SFL-DIR Afternoon Dive

Mike and Kim took us out on Fish Food. The boat was comfortably full. David was diving with our new member Lee and Keat to get ready for DIR F. Andrea and I were taking the scooters out for another run. I want to get it in the water one more time before taking it deeper. Mike dropped Bob on the tie off and then dropped us in the middle of the rock pile betten the United Caribbean and Sea Emperor. It was perfect, we headed east and hit the Noula Express bow in 3 minutes!

I turned the pitch and just stared at the bow section of the wreck. I was putting it back together in my mind's eye. The new angles are very cool. I love the fact this wreck is right next to the reef line for more fish. We cruised over the cargo area and the submarine. The stern looked really abused. Almost like it turned some. Going around to the rear, the swing thur looked like it had been crushed or collapsed. I wasn't going in there. We drifted down the bottom on the stern enjoying the flow of water water. There was quite a mix between 82 and 77 degree water all over.

We scootered south down the reef and went from patch to patch. We didn't hit the rock pile, but ran right into the culverts of the Sea Emperor. We cruised looking in all the corners. I didn't see the batfish on the South edge of the barge. We floated down the West facing edge. Quite a bit of fish life I never noticed before as all the action for divers is on the East side.

There was no nurse sharks or Goliath under the barge. The swim thru looked big enough to fit thru, but I knew Andrea wouldn't be cool with that. We drifted over the culverts again and headed out for the rock pile. Ther was another dive boat over head and I looked up from the DM making the tie, but I think out bubbles scared them off temporary. Capt. Mike knew our dive plan and probably radioed over.

We passed two divers on the rock pile back to the United Caribbean. The poor goatfish didn't know if we were coming or going. There were cruising to both sides trying to get out of the way.

The UC was all tore up from my last trip. The stern had rolled over on the port side. The cargo walls were broken off and the bow just sat there. We looked for the other team. There were on the starboard side heading for the bow. PERFECT set up, I told the team I would try to surprise them. We went down to the sand and headed around the point of the bow. Keat was in the lead and looking at the wreck as I started to flash him an OOA. He looked back at his team and everything was just fine. Confused he looked forward into the light and saw my open mouth in disbelief. Then he deployed is long hose and went to his back up. He was 5 seconds from a head on collision with the Gavin. Add, "knocking out diver underwater and taking their gas supply" as another scooter benefit! On the boat, we were joking about the Planet Earth Disk 4 diaries showing the hot air balloon crashing into the Balboa tree.

Lee was looking really good in the water and was paying close attention to what was going on. We scootered past and headed to the stern. I couldn't resist scootering down the port side hallway and back out. My new Dive Rite First stages to a full impact at the end as I missed the exit by a few inches. Looking around the rear I wanted to make it up on the Starboard side and did it again, perfectly!

Andrea headed back to the line and we started our ascent. The mixed temp water was going to cause some current up shallow. I adjusted the pitch of my prop and stayed with the line in the current with the scooter. Andrea stopped scootering and went for the line. I kept looking for her and didn't get a problem or issue? Why was she doing things the hard way?

At 40ft the current was up to .5 knot or more and she strained to get the scooter tow cable thru the handle and clipped off to the line so she had two hands to hold on. What the scooter dead? I kept mine live and watched what was going on so that I had the most options if Andrea or the scooter came loose. At the surface, we were tied in bow first with no granny line. The scooter was floating there and Andrea had let go and went back to the stern. The current was ripping and the waves were moving the line.

Staying calm under stress, I held my scooter and the line with one hand. I worked her scooter free and clipped it off to my D ring and get it behind my legs. Now I can drift back to the boat. After letting go, I just got my scooter on to pull me out from hitting the bow of Fishfood.

I grabbed the tag line as I flew past the stern. The small poly line slipped thru my gloves like butter. The current and drag of two scooters was pulling me back. I held on as Kim pulled me in. I handed up Andrea's scooter first. Then got mine up and me back on the boat. Yipes that was not fun!

On the boat I debriefed with Andrea. What was wrong with the scooter? "Nothing" she said. Why did you stop being a scooter diver and grab the line? "Because I don't like current. The scooter was pulling her forward and she couldn't get the prop pitch right. Well she didn't the right thing be not getting behind the up line with the scooter as that would be when it fails. But if she stayed scootering, it would have been a lot easier for both of us. We will work on adjusting speed on the next dive.

We had a full gale storm on and rough seas on the 40 minute trek South to Lighthouse ledge. I stayed in my gear and tried to stay warm in the cold freshwater rinse.

We decided to leave the scooters behind and drift in the nice current with the other team. Andrea and I got into Zen dive mode and tuned into the fish. I missed her signal to see the Long snout butterfly fish right as we got down. I did see the green moray being cleaned by 5 neon gobies and several Spanish Hogfish juveniles.

Not being able to hold back I had to get into the drills with Keat and Lee. Valve drills and S drills were looking good. They had a good command of the basic 5. I blew some bubbles by purging the back up reg to see how the reacted. Lee was right there. Keat developed a new technique of closing both valves at the same time. This really saves gas. I was worried he was going to cause a real OOA so I hovered at his face with my long hose in front of his nose. He stopped and completed a valve drill so he was set back to normal.

At the end of the dive I surfaced first. David was winding up the reel so I pushed the dive flag down to him to make him thing he was coming up. He had a classic look on his face when he was at 5 feet, saw the flag float and then I let go of it to bring him up.

David did a great job of running thru and how's and why's of DIR diving. He also explained the need for the skills dives to get past thinking about the gear and just diving as a team. Andrea said that she is still thinking about the scooter too much and not enjoying the dive yet. She just needs more time, dives, and practice.

Amazon.com: The Alchemy of Finance (Wiley Investment Classics): George Soros, Paul A. Volcker: Books

I've heard the name George Soros and decided to check out another successful investor besides Warren Buffet and Benjamin Graham. This book is one of those books that took a corner stone concept in my mind and pulled the rug out from underneath it!

I finished two economics classes at Iowa State with a B-. The two concepts that stick with me are Marginal Utility and Supply and Demand. Marginal Utility states that there is a U shaped curve the the demand for a product. The first donut is really good. The second is almost as good. The third is the top of the curve, I've had enough. The fourth decrease my enjoyment and the fifth gives me a tummy ache making me worse off that when I started eating donuts.

The second concept was supply and demand. The power of glorious capitalism and miracle of supply and demade to sort out any issue when it comes to how much of what to produce? The first thing George taught was that supply and demand are NOT plotted on the same curve. Supply is completely separate from demand. The second thing is that for the two curves to be on the same graph, it was require "perfect knowledge" of suppliers and demanders. Just as a Marxist command economy does not have the perfect knowledge of what and how much to produce, neither does the market.

The advantage of the market is that with cycles and periods of boom and bust, expansion and contraction the economy drives forwards. Its just that there is a manic depressive psychopath at the wheel and a lot of people get run over along the way.

The major benefit of Marxism is that the economy is much more stable. Some may say there is less opportunity, but there is certainly less up and down.

The major benefit of the Markets is that there is instability, wide changes, and lots of opportunity to make and loose and fortune. But why are things so unstable. George was writing at time of credit boom and cheap money made for cop orate merger mania. Credit was contracting and driving down the value of collateral. Gee, just what is happening with now withe burst housing bubble. I just need to figure out what George did and then I can do the same thing!

Not quite that easy. The next super cool concept was "Reflective Connection" between ideas. His point is that the markets are not scientific, but closer to quantum physics. The act of studying a "thing" effects how the thing reacts. That is a much deeper understanding of the bi-polar Mr. Market. Why aren't there drugs to regulate this problem? Its called the government. The issue is, as a boom takes shape. No one can stop it. Everyone rides the tide until the bust. Then the contraction takes place and creates a crisis. Only a crises can bond affected parties together to remedy the situation.

Take our housing boom. Could the government really do anything to stop it? Not really, except raise interest rates, but would have affected other sectors. Could Bank of America stop participating and stop it from happening? Not really, if they didn't make the loans, someone else would have. Not that the bust is here, BOA can buy Country wide, all the banks will tighten lending strategies and a lot of mortgage brokers will be looking for other jobs. The Government couldn't forcee the new bundle mortgage derivative product, so it didn't regulate it. Now in hindsight, regulations will be put into place to prevent this type of bubble from occurring again. But don't despair, it 10, 15 or 20 years, a new bubble will form and the same thing will happen again, just in a different way. Regulation is necessary, but not preventative.

Now this is the depressing part. It takes a crisis to get all the parties to focus on an issue and get it under control. As soon as the pressure of the crisis is over so will the teamwork. Then business will go about as usual. We never fix anything, we just band aid it and move on. Pick any topic you want, and you'll see the same thing. This is why the boom lasts longer than the bust. The bust is painful, but never as long as the boom. You just have to muddle thru it until the next bubble starts to form somewhere else.

This is inherit in free markets and explains the misconception that markets are supposed to bring stability as equilibrium is reached. Instead, they lead swinging extremes of boom and bust, expansion and contraction. Things are always better than they really are or worse than they really are. Its just a matter of following the trend and not being the last one out the door when the trend reverses.

Perhaps that's a better detailed explanation of the cliche, "Bulls make money and Bears make money but Pigs get slaughtered." The trend will always reverse, its just that know one knows when or why? They make up the why after it happens and attribute it to some event that is probably more coincidence than reality. That's why you feel bad thinking, "Man, I never so that coming!" But the next time "that" happens, it doesn't turn a trend. Humm, that's the Reflective part!

The beginning third of Geoges book was great. The experiment was waaayyy over my head. The end, like the market was a bust. There was no "secert" to making money in this crazy economy. No magic bullet that worked in the 80s and now will work in 2008.

What George did teach me was not what anyone wants to hear. He said that when he was studing specific events. His trading went to hell. When he wasn't paying attention any more, his trading when to hell. When he was actually writing down and journaling the thought process behind his trading he did much better. There is a word for this. Its in every self help book on the planet. Got it yet?

Its called, "Goal Setting"! By writing down his plan, George was making a goal. When the market went against the trade, George held on, past the point of normally jumping ship and reversing himself. Most of the time that worked. Some of the time, he got whacked. Reading the experiment section, he dwells on the losses to the point you think he is not making any more. Until you see tha stuff that is working is up and he does 120% in one year!

So its less of what your do and more about why your doing it? What is your goal, what is your plan? Write it down!

Not knowing how to make money in a down market, I just went to cash. After 6 months, I stopped following the markets and looking to get in. I've missed a few rallies. Now I'm getting in with my few favorite stocks with a buy and hold as they are all 50% off their value.

True story, I meant to sell my 100 shares of Panera Bread at $38 which would have been a loss from buying at $55. I clicked the wrong button and put in a buy order. Which was filled before the price dropped to around $30. Oh I was pissed. But it was a great price on a good company. PNRA is the only stock I'm up on right now. I've picked up some GRMN, and HANS as they are two favorites from the past. I will hold them thru a year for the lower tax rate, but then, they will be back up and they are the kind of stocks that will run up. I also plan to start selling covered calls on them.

I've picked up some SIGM Sigma Designs as that stock is a fav of my optometrist. Chicos, CHS, is featured in Rule #1 and I lost a bundle buying at $30, $20, and selling for a loss. Its down to $5 now and the company is still strong, it just needs to reorganize so it can turn around. I'm still 60% in cash, but now I'm back in the game and it feels good to "worry" about not check the markey and prices as now I have something to watch. While I'm there, I'm looking to see what is the next big boom or bust and how can I profit from it?

Friday July 4th, Datura Scooter Dive

Andrea and I wanted to try out the new Gavin on an easy dive. The weighting seemed really good in the fresh water tank so I added the 1lb to the nose and packed it up.

It was a nice calm morning, the parking was packed for fireworks at 7:45 AM. Luckily someone left as we waited. We had breakfast and then went diving. The scooters staged by the shower generated a lot of comments from the locals. At least no one asked me if there were sharks out there.

We headed out to the snorkel trail where Andrea adjust here leash to get it just right so the scooter tracked straight an didn't pull up or down. I made up some extra leashes to give away. Most are going to be too short for my team members, but it was good practice getting my own readjusted and adjusting a few new ones.

We took off for the second reef and were there in 5 minutes. Much better than the 20 minutes it takes to swim it. We turned south. We went all the way past Palm Street until the reef flatten out in about 40 minutes at an easy pace. We turned North, past Datura and went to the big corals past the peir. We found the school of Surgenfish and schools of baby Jacks 3 inchs long. They hung was us for "protection". We turned back and headed for Datura. At the first reef line, I decided to go for it all and head back South to the big coral with all the glassy sweepers. We found it with ease and I was surprised with how many were there. There was three big schools of different age ranges and sizes in the area.

We cruised back to the snorkel trail and then in to Datura. 122 mintues round trip with 18ft max depth. Visiblity was about 30ft, A- conditions for beach diving. We crawled out, hauled the scooters up the beach, rinsed and then put out the beach chairs for 90s minutes of relaxation. We missed the boys, but had a great day!

Amazon.com: Rule #1: The Simple Strategy for Successful Investing in Only 15 Minutes a Week!: Phil Town: Books
A friend wrote me saying that he finally finished reading Rule #1 by Phil Town. He asked how its going for me 2 years later?

My reply.....

It worked out really well for me. I did 36% in my first year using MSN money to research and track my portfolio. Not wanting to confuse brains with a bull market, things overall were running up right up to Nov 2007 when the credit crash happened. I was in at a good overall time. I knew it was coming and got out in Sept. I missed two great months of gains, but I was sitting in cash for my stocks and 401K when it dropped like a rock.

A recession brings about a 20% drop in the Dow. I figured that means I didn't want to get back in until it hit 11,500 as a signal of being near the bottom. Just like I couldn't figure out the top before it happened, I can't figure out the bottom either. The credit crunch needs another 6 months for the mortgage/finance industry to sort out and stabilize.


My best pics were Florida Rock 80% (bought out by Vulcan Materials). Garmin 150% GRMN and Hansons 110%. There are about 15 other losers in the mix that brought my overall average down to 36%. Lowes, Home Depot, Bed Bath and Beyond, Chicos, and Williams Sonoma name a few losers that seemed good at the time.


It seems backwards, but its not the winners, but how many losers you have that make the difference. I've been doing a lot of background reading on Buffet, Graham, and Dodd. I'm reading George Soros now.


After not being able to predict the crash, I spent $1000 of my profit on an Investools Stock Course. I learned what I was missing is the purchasing stock only makes you money when the market goes up. Buffet says we'll have 12 years of sideways markets before the next bull rally. I saw the crash coming, but didn't know how to profit by it. Now I've been reading up on Options. That's the trick to making money in all market directions. However, there is a big penalty for errors. :) It sounds good on paper, I have yet to click a trade as the power is intimidating.


The investools Options course is $5000 and I'm not ready for that kind of investment yet. I like to read books for free from the library to get a broad prospective and it works as an antidote to lure of "get rich quick" promises of all the books.


Knowing how to research and understand the value of a company is a great starting point. Its the 101 of investing and it takes time for all this to soak in. I'm not a math person, but I'm finally staring to get it. My advice is don't rush and just let it soak in.


The only other thing I can say is that all my big losses, started as little losses. I've learned to love small losses and get out at the first sign of trouble. I can always get back in. Trading commissions are so small now compared to what they used to be.

Another good rule I wish I knew from the start was the 10% rule. Don't invest more that 10% of your available assests in any one trade. I was always guessing how much to purchase?


Save all our paperwork and keep your transactions logged somewhere online. Taxes are a be-yatch! I hope you use an accountant, I scared Andrea off from doing ours this year.


The most encouraging part is that no one is going to take as good of care of my money as me. Mutual funds are a scam, you'll probably want to get in a fight at your next 401K meeting as they serve up the BS. The difference instead of thinking its BS and just not opening your statements, you'll know its BS and learn how to minimize the downside and look for the upside potential. Most importantly you won't be afraid to let it sit in cash (or low yield bond fund) until a better opportunity presents itself.


Currently I'm about 20% invested 80% cash.


I'm holding GRMN, HANS, PNRA, and MMM right now. My next move is to sell covered calls on the first three as soon as I can figure out how to do it on the Bank of America website.


Keep in touch, I've only a few other people I speak with about investing and I'd love to get a club or group going. Discussing what is going on is the best way to keep it interesting. Once you put trades it, you'll watch them like a hawk. When I got out in cash, I lost interest and had to force myself to get back in the habit.


What's your first move?

Stopwatch vs. Bottom Timer, Why The Stopwatch Is A Better Way?

I've read arguments and debates on whether to use a stopwatch or bottom timer when timing decompression in technical diving. After over 75 dives experimenting both ways I offer an argument why the stopwatch is a better way.

First, my reason has nothing to do with decompression theory. Since there is no real benefit in accuracy or measurable difference in stops.

The advantage of the stopwatch is that it allows the team to more accurately follow their dive plan. The closer the plan is followed the more clarity is offered in making decisions and determining problems. The faster a problem is identified, the faster it can be fixed.

When preparing a dive plan, limits are placed on distance, bottom time, gas consumption. The ascent and decompression is agreeded upon. All tasks are identified and assigned to the team before jumping into the water.

The Stopwatch allows the team to more closly follow the decompression. If the team determins 25 minutes of decompression is appropriate, that is what should be done.

With the team setting their stopwatches after the gas switch, there are all on the same page. Any deviation from the ascent plan can be identified in less than 30 seconds. Quickly being alerted to the issue allows the team to question if there is an issue? Usualy the person timing deco gets distracted and all continues as normal. If there is a serious issue now it can be worked out. Perhaps there was an change in deco plan or the person is not feeling well.

The real benefit is a better dive. The more black and white the plan, the less time during the dive are you distracted by the shades of gray in predicting what is going to happen next? Once you know everything is planned, any small deviation from the plan will be questioned, you can relax and take comfort in your awareness and of your teammates.

The less you think about the dive, the more your enjoy the dive.

The Usurper of Democracy

Bravo JuanCarlos, The Usurper of Democracy SHOWDOWN

One of Andrea's friends from school has a brother that is an artist.