So how else can we use the bikes? How about going for dinner? Humm, that's a crazy idea that just might work. After picking our range and what was available we decided to try the new Japanese buffet that replaced the IHOP next to Sedanos on 58th and 107th.
We loaded the boys up for the 15 minute ride over there. One spot the street is missing the curb so Andrea had to help lift the boys trailer back on the side walk. The sling they sit on doesn't have any padding. I took them off a curb one and Ev started crying. It was too much of a jolt for him. I thought he would like it?
We got there and I found a tree to tie up our rides. There were no bike racks. The boys love the noodles and rice. Nathan and Everett both managed to eat some food with chopsticks. Then our server gave us the kiddie version with rubber bands and spacer. They did well eating and stabbing the food.
We loaded back up and headed home. There was some brief crying before they passed out and went to sleep. We road past the house to the frontage road behind our house and to the Doral Meadows park for a quick lap to look at the little league games.
On the way there we were riding into a thunder head with a beautiful lightening going from cloud to cloud. I thought of the songs written in Black Elk Speaks. I just finished reading the book.
On the way home, the heat lightening turned to crackling ground to air lightening with thunder 10 seconds behind it. We picked up the pace and headed home. We got everything packed up before it rained. It felt like it was going to be a big rain, but it sputtered a little bit and then nothing. Just like the end of Black Elks book.
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Riding Shark Valley 10/5
Sunday we loaded up our gear and food for a picnic at Shark Valley. Its a 17 mile one lane road that makes a loop in the Everglades. 8 miles in there is a 4 story observation tower with no civilization in site. Several months ago we paid the $15 per person for the 2 hour tram ride with 20 minutes stop at the tower. It wasn't long enough and I dreamed of riding the trail.
Driving there was cloudy with the threat of rain. We were ready to call the ride before we got started. The park road was flooded with 6 inches of water flowing across. The park ranger said the tram was closed due to flooding for 4 days and we could ride 6 miles in on either side of the loop to where they had to close the trail.
We arrived 10 minutes late and cell phones were useless so we couldn't contact Lee and Carmen who were supposed to join us. We loaded up and headed out.
The water was right up to the road. Creatures would jump back into the water as we road past. We saw several groups of baby alligators knowing mom was not far away even if we couldn't see her. One 6 foot gator was laying on the side of the road. He was completly unimpressed with my new bike! I left the camera in the car fearing a big downpour.
1 hour later at 3 miles in the boys started crying. Andrea didn't pack the diaper bag or picnic food as we were going to come back to eat. But that also left the milk bottles back in the car. We tried one some water and turned to head back.
After some crying they both passed out and went to sleep. I parked the bike and trailer and ate while they slept. 10 minutes later Lee and Carmen came off the trail!
They had rented bikes and went to the end and back. There were ahead and behind us. They ate with us and Andrea and I got to know Carmen a bit. She is a new member of SFL-DIR.
The boys woke up and ate. We shared some stories and loaded up again to ride the other side. There were more herons and egrets on this side. We went 2 miles in before turning aorund due to time. Lee and Carmen had to get the rental bikes back or pay a late fee.
We parted company and headed back to civilation. Were nutes, but I love going on these weekend adventures!
Driving there was cloudy with the threat of rain. We were ready to call the ride before we got started. The park road was flooded with 6 inches of water flowing across. The park ranger said the tram was closed due to flooding for 4 days and we could ride 6 miles in on either side of the loop to where they had to close the trail.
We arrived 10 minutes late and cell phones were useless so we couldn't contact Lee and Carmen who were supposed to join us. We loaded up and headed out.
The water was right up to the road. Creatures would jump back into the water as we road past. We saw several groups of baby alligators knowing mom was not far away even if we couldn't see her. One 6 foot gator was laying on the side of the road. He was completly unimpressed with my new bike! I left the camera in the car fearing a big downpour.
1 hour later at 3 miles in the boys started crying. Andrea didn't pack the diaper bag or picnic food as we were going to come back to eat. But that also left the milk bottles back in the car. We tried one some water and turned to head back.
After some crying they both passed out and went to sleep. I parked the bike and trailer and ate while they slept. 10 minutes later Lee and Carmen came off the trail!
They had rented bikes and went to the end and back. There were ahead and behind us. They ate with us and Andrea and I got to know Carmen a bit. She is a new member of SFL-DIR.
The boys woke up and ate. We shared some stories and loaded up again to ride the other side. There were more herons and egrets on this side. We went 2 miles in before turning aorund due to time. Lee and Carmen had to get the rental bikes back or pay a late fee.
We parted company and headed back to civilation. Were nutes, but I love going on these weekend adventures!
We Got Bikes!
Andrea wanted to get out and exercise more. She wanted to get bikes and thought that would be fun to spend some of her bonus on. We went to Bike Tech off Bird Road (SW40th) and had a great experience. We tried on many bikes and went thru all the options. It took over three hours to go from test ride to installing the bike rack, loading up and heading home.
I picked out a Specialize RockHopper. It has the 19" frame, 26" wheels, the Rox Shox 3, spring loaded with lock out for road riding and cantilever brakes. There just is no need for disc in FL and they are higher maintenance.
Andrea picked out the Specialized Carmel Hybrid bike. She had her heart set on an Electra with "flat feet technology" where the peddles are forward so when you stop you are not on your tippy toes, but can put your foot flat on the ground. Her legs were not long enough to take advantage of this. Riding the Carmel just felt right for her. She picked gray to match her dry suit.
One of Andrea's co-workers was nice enough to give us the two seat bike trailer for the boys. I hooked it up to my bike and have no problem towing them around. However, after a ride with them I love to take it off and go for a spin. I feel like I'm flying without the extra drag!
I picked out a Specialize RockHopper. It has the 19" frame, 26" wheels, the Rox Shox 3, spring loaded with lock out for road riding and cantilever brakes. There just is no need for disc in FL and they are higher maintenance.
Andrea picked out the Specialized Carmel Hybrid bike. She had her heart set on an Electra with "flat feet technology" where the peddles are forward so when you stop you are not on your tippy toes, but can put your foot flat on the ground. Her legs were not long enough to take advantage of this. Riding the Carmel just felt right for her. She picked gray to match her dry suit.
One of Andrea's co-workers was nice enough to give us the two seat bike trailer for the boys. I hooked it up to my bike and have no problem towing them around. However, after a ride with them I love to take it off and go for a spin. I feel like I'm flying without the extra drag!
Goliath Grouper at Hole in the Wall
After an hour boat ride back North we got to the site. We took a 90 minute SI before jumping back into the water. The visibility was not as good around 50ft. We got down and hit the ledge. We would blow by groups of 5 and 10 Goliath grouper in the 200-400lb range. David's scooter didn't hold out for the second drop so he put it into tow position and Ron help keep him on the reef. After 15 minutes of drifting we hit the hole in the wall with about 30 Goliath around. The hole was packed with them as well.
I seconded guess penetraing in, but decided it was worth to move in slowly and the VW bug sized fish would move out of my way. If you close at the picture you can see just how many fish were there in just on shot.
After the Hole we hit one more group and then it was just the local fish. There were large Horse Eye Jacks that were pitch black and ready to mate. Small Juvenile fish close to the reef.
Everyone made it back to the boat and we headed back to the dock. I figured my arms were sore from loading the boat. I was wasted by the time we got all the gear back off. The marina is under construction and loading and unloading is not easy at this point. Once finished it will be a great location.
I seconded guess penetraing in, but decided it was worth to move in slowly and the VW bug sized fish would move out of my way. If you close at the picture you can see just how many fish were there in just on shot.
After the Hole we hit one more group and then it was just the local fish. There were large Horse Eye Jacks that were pitch black and ready to mate. Small Juvenile fish close to the reef.
Everyone made it back to the boat and we headed back to the dock. I figured my arms were sore from loading the boat. I was wasted by the time we got all the gear back off. The marina is under construction and loading and unloading is not easy at this point. Once finished it will be a great location.
Diving the Ande off WPB
I was not happy to be right. After loading the gear by humping tanks up and over the gunnal of the boat at high tide we headed out. On the way out the inlet, Randy said that there was reported black water North of Jupiter Inlet going out to 170ft. This report was collaborated by Mike Barnett the week before. We could skip the Mulphin and try for the Ranking and a reef or head south to the Ande and hit Hole in the Wall on the way back up. There was a Goliath Grouper Spawning aggregation at the Hole that would be leaving after the full moon in two days. We decided to take the sure thing.
Our dive profiles just dropped 20ft to 190ft on Ande and 140ft at the Hole in the wall. I had brough my 18/45 because it was already filled and 21/35.
I took over an hour at 8 knots. We geared up, did out checks as the captian ran over the wreck one more time. Ops, there was no wreck. He had the wrong coordinates in the GPS. We had another 20 minutes south to go. David doffed his gear to avoid overheating.
We cheered after finding the wreck and got ready to dive. We had a 400ft lead and Randy said the currents can run slightly East so be ready to head West. After we splashed I saw something fall under David, I dove and caught the hub to Davids Gavin and gave him the broken scooter sign. He had dialed it down to full speed and the pitch held so he could use it on the dive. There was 1.5 knot current and we needed it.
The wreck was not dove much and covered with fishing line. I found some waving in the current 30ft off the side of the wreck. The lights were very useful for finding this.
The stern was listing to starboard. The cargo hold was broken just before the bridge and mostly upright. It was not a clean break and ripped speices jutted out from both sides. At the bow, the main mast was still upright and beautiful in the blue water.
I stopped and got my team to do some fly overs for photos. My scooters trim had changed to nose down, but still just slightly negative, I wondered what was wrong as it didn't seem flooded? The current was also taking all the strengh out of my right arm. I usually shoot with one hand and drive with the other, but fighting the current was taking its toll.
After 20 minutes I was feeling task loaded so I put the camera away and scootered around the wreck. At the stern, the updraft was so strong it held the Gavin in place at full speed. I went over the mast and followed it up and we prepared for deco.
Our ascent and deco ran perfectly. Excpet for one stop I overstayed as I got into the medatative zone. From there up I had fun making eyes at David and Ron to make them thinkt the stop was over too soon without making the hand signal. Its amazing how dialed in a team can get!
Our dive profiles just dropped 20ft to 190ft on Ande and 140ft at the Hole in the wall. I had brough my 18/45 because it was already filled and 21/35.
I took over an hour at 8 knots. We geared up, did out checks as the captian ran over the wreck one more time. Ops, there was no wreck. He had the wrong coordinates in the GPS. We had another 20 minutes south to go. David doffed his gear to avoid overheating.
We cheered after finding the wreck and got ready to dive. We had a 400ft lead and Randy said the currents can run slightly East so be ready to head West. After we splashed I saw something fall under David, I dove and caught the hub to Davids Gavin and gave him the broken scooter sign. He had dialed it down to full speed and the pitch held so he could use it on the dive. There was 1.5 knot current and we needed it.
The wreck was not dove much and covered with fishing line. I found some waving in the current 30ft off the side of the wreck. The lights were very useful for finding this.
The stern was listing to starboard. The cargo hold was broken just before the bridge and mostly upright. It was not a clean break and ripped speices jutted out from both sides. At the bow, the main mast was still upright and beautiful in the blue water.
I stopped and got my team to do some fly overs for photos. My scooters trim had changed to nose down, but still just slightly negative, I wondered what was wrong as it didn't seem flooded? The current was also taking all the strengh out of my right arm. I usually shoot with one hand and drive with the other, but fighting the current was taking its toll.
After 20 minutes I was feeling task loaded so I put the camera away and scootered around the wreck. At the stern, the updraft was so strong it held the Gavin in place at full speed. I went over the mast and followed it up and we prepared for deco.
Our ascent and deco ran perfectly. Excpet for one stop I overstayed as I got into the medatative zone. From there up I had fun making eyes at David and Ron to make them thinkt the stop was over too soon without making the hand signal. Its amazing how dialed in a team can get!
Preparing for the Ande Dive
Getting ready to dive the Mulphin and Rankin, I had some interesting email debates with my team. I found that I had some assumptions that my teammates didn't . The debate didn't really boil down to whose right and wrong so much as two stubborn people were arguing for acknowledgement.
When choosing gasses for 170ft dive and 120ft dive it was trimix and 21/35 all the way with 50% deco. In fact I offered. For the experience cave diver, 32% and 100% deco was a fine strategy proven over and over again in Ginnie. The difference being that Ginnie, with exception of water level, doesn't change. The ocean is constantly changing and many factors can affect a dive plan.
Oceanic dive plans can change on a dime. I knew WPB offered even more intense issues of current, black water, wave height and surge. Not to mention the possibility of an unfriendly fishing boat covering our dive site.
With this in mind 21/25 with 50% for the first dive and 100% for the 2nd dive became the plan.
On the surface interval David wanted to see how he'd look in an Optima?
When choosing gasses for 170ft dive and 120ft dive it was trimix and 21/35 all the way with 50% deco. In fact I offered. For the experience cave diver, 32% and 100% deco was a fine strategy proven over and over again in Ginnie. The difference being that Ginnie, with exception of water level, doesn't change. The ocean is constantly changing and many factors can affect a dive plan.
Oceanic dive plans can change on a dime. I knew WPB offered even more intense issues of current, black water, wave height and surge. Not to mention the possibility of an unfriendly fishing boat covering our dive site.
With this in mind 21/25 with 50% for the first dive and 100% for the 2nd dive became the plan.
On the surface interval David wanted to see how he'd look in an Optima?
Friday, October 10, 2008
The $45.6 trillion Credit Default Swap Crash vs. the $700 bil Sub Prime Crash
I found this posted in the comment section of a news article. I have not verfied the background or facts. It is an intestesting opinion to read with a grain of salt.
--Matt
=================================================================================
This isn't going to settle out until after the Credit Default Swap payoff auctions on Oct 23. Only then will everyone know just how exposed everyone else is. Many banks will fail no matter what the government does. But many will also survive and once shown to be sound their business will resume.
.
What is scary to me about this is the way governments are taking over ownership of private sector financial institutions and private industry. Just think of the banks being run like the IRS or the Post Office - and by the very same people with political mandates. While it would hurt, it would be better to just let many of these banks fail and be replaced with new ones. All this life support is going to do is lead to perpetually sick banks run by politicians for political purposes.
.
.
.
Guess I will repost this for those who didn't see it the first time. Skip it if you have seen it already.
.
The $45.6 trillion Credit Default Swap Crash vs. the $700 bil Sub Prime Crash
.
All of this because 5% of U.S. mortgages are defaulting? This 5% isn’t that big a number compared to the world financial markets. After all, the other 95% are still paying and yielding a cash flow. So if sub primes didn’t cause this what is going on?
.
What is going on is a Credit Default Swap caused crash. A CDS is a form of insurance on loans that pays off if the loan defaults. CDS are totally unregulated and un-monitored by any government agency. CDS are not called insurance because insurance is regulated. If it was called insurance, and regulated, the issuers of the policies would be required to have assets enough to cover any claims. But it isn’t insurance. And it turns out the issuers of CDS never had the assets to cover any claims – even a small claim like the sub prime mortgage defaults. If they had paid off the sub prime defaults everyone would have their money and there would be no bailout.
.
The banks and financial institutions that issued unregulated CDS made billions collecting the premiums (but they are not called premiums because it isn’t insurance). But when the sub prime backed instruments started to default they couldn’t pay off because they had no assets to pay off with. AIG is one example. And everyone noticed and started to worry.
.
The real problem is that CDS were not sold to cover just mortgages loans. They were sold to cover almost every kind of lending instrument. Obviously, a bond that is insured against defaulting is more valuable and higher rated than one that is not insured. So once the CDS began defaulting on the subprime market it became obvious they were worthless insurance on everything else they insured, which is just about everything else out there. So the value of every bond, hedge fund and other investment instrument dropped on the books of every institution holding them. And they dropped fairly sharply.
.
And then there are the CDS themselves. They were on the books as an income producing investment instrument just like a bond from a legitimate insurance company. Now they are virtually worthless. How much were they worth before the truth about them was revealed? $42.6 TRILLION. For perspective, this is equal to the entire household wealth of the U.S.; the U.S. stock market is capitalized at $18.5 trillion. So what really has happened is that the global financial markets have just taken a $42.6 trillion dollar loss of assets.
.
Our recent bailout is only $700 billion, a tiny fraction of the outstanding CDS and not enough to make a tiny tiny dent in the debt the financial institutions are now holding. So what did our elected officials just do? They bailed out their campaign donors and gave them a chance to cash in their chips and leave the game with some cash in their pockets.
.
The sub prime defaults are just a minor diversion that takes your eyes off what has really happened. Huge companies, here and abroad, (CDS started in Europe) committed a fancy complicated form of fraud. They sold insurance that wasn’t really insurance, collected billions in “premiums” that pumped up their books and made billions for their executives and brokers. They often issued a CDS to a buyer to pump up the price of a bond or financial instrument they were selling and thus increased their profits two ways.
.
If a real regulated insurance company had done this the executives would all be indicted, prosecuted and put in jail for a long time. It was fraud and I hope our government will go after these weasels and put them in jail. But I doubt that will happen.
.
The problem right now is that no one knows who is holding what or even how to begin to value holdings. The value of holdings of all kinds have clearly dropped. But by how much? In the sub prime mortgage market, for example, the houses are still out there and clearly they have some considerable value. But how much? The same holds across all the markets. The tangible assets securing most of the loans are still out there. But what are they worth now? We are about to see a huge 100 year shake out on the value of everything and everyone is going to take a hit. The more leveraged any business or individual is the more they are going to devalue. And that is another new aspect of this crash.
.
Super low interest rates made borrowing possible – smart – at rates that would have been unthinkable 20 years ago. 20 years ago being leveraged at a 5 to 1 rate was the normal limit. Today 30 to 1 is normal. 4% interest rates simply could not be ignored and go unused. Hedge funds with 4% interest rates made extreme leveraging even more extreme for large investors and funds. It turns out some hedge funds had 100 to 1 leveraging. (Hedge funds are another unregulated market) So our entire economy, the businesses, the banks, individuals are credit extended like never before in history. So they are all going to be devalued like never before. This is going to be the perfect financial storm. And it isn’t going to end anytime soon.
.
A lot of companies are going to fail – unavoidably. There is going to be a lot of unemployment. A lot of retirement funds are going to fail – including government backed retirement funds like state funds. And the U.S. government cannot bail them all out. But it will try at first. And the government will have unemployment claims and welfare claims like never before. And all this will cause another problem that will cause more pain. Inflation.
.
Inflation like we haven’t seen in decades. Because the only way the government will have to pay off its debts – and they are going to be huge, even compared to our present huge debt – is to print money. Lots of money.
.
We are going to see something unthinkable in the past. High unemployment, bankruptcies, banks closing and a very slow economy, BUT with high inflation because every government in the world is going to print money to try and bail things out.
.
What to do? Getting out of debt would be a good idea. Cash is good – but vulnerable to inflation. Gold is better. Start minimizing your expenses in every way possible. If you are about to retire don’t. Keep the job if the job is still there. If your retirement fund doesn’t go bust, inflation will devalue the retirement payments. Things will settle out. The economy will restart. New companies will be started to replace the ones who go under. The sun will come out again. But not for a long time.
I found this posted in the comment section of a news article. I have not verfied the background or facts. It is an intestesting opinion to read with a grain of salt.
--Matt
=================================================================================
This isn't going to settle out until after the Credit Default Swap payoff auctions on Oct 23. Only then will everyone know just how exposed everyone else is. Many banks will fail no matter what the government does. But many will also survive and once shown to be sound their business will resume.
.
What is scary to me about this is the way governments are taking over ownership of private sector financial institutions and private industry. Just think of the banks being run like the IRS or the Post Office - and by the very same people with political mandates. While it would hurt, it would be better to just let many of these banks fail and be replaced with new ones. All this life support is going to do is lead to perpetually sick banks run by politicians for political purposes.
.
.
.
Guess I will repost this for those who didn't see it the first time. Skip it if you have seen it already.
.
The $45.6 trillion Credit Default Swap Crash vs. the $700 bil Sub Prime Crash
.
All of this because 5% of U.S. mortgages are defaulting? This 5% isn’t that big a number compared to the world financial markets. After all, the other 95% are still paying and yielding a cash flow. So if sub primes didn’t cause this what is going on?
.
What is going on is a Credit Default Swap caused crash. A CDS is a form of insurance on loans that pays off if the loan defaults. CDS are totally unregulated and un-monitored by any government agency. CDS are not called insurance because insurance is regulated. If it was called insurance, and regulated, the issuers of the policies would be required to have assets enough to cover any claims. But it isn’t insurance. And it turns out the issuers of CDS never had the assets to cover any claims – even a small claim like the sub prime mortgage defaults. If they had paid off the sub prime defaults everyone would have their money and there would be no bailout.
.
The banks and financial institutions that issued unregulated CDS made billions collecting the premiums (but they are not called premiums because it isn’t insurance). But when the sub prime backed instruments started to default they couldn’t pay off because they had no assets to pay off with. AIG is one example. And everyone noticed and started to worry.
.
The real problem is that CDS were not sold to cover just mortgages loans. They were sold to cover almost every kind of lending instrument. Obviously, a bond that is insured against defaulting is more valuable and higher rated than one that is not insured. So once the CDS began defaulting on the subprime market it became obvious they were worthless insurance on everything else they insured, which is just about everything else out there. So the value of every bond, hedge fund and other investment instrument dropped on the books of every institution holding them. And they dropped fairly sharply.
.
And then there are the CDS themselves. They were on the books as an income producing investment instrument just like a bond from a legitimate insurance company. Now they are virtually worthless. How much were they worth before the truth about them was revealed? $42.6 TRILLION. For perspective, this is equal to the entire household wealth of the U.S.; the U.S. stock market is capitalized at $18.5 trillion. So what really has happened is that the global financial markets have just taken a $42.6 trillion dollar loss of assets.
.
Our recent bailout is only $700 billion, a tiny fraction of the outstanding CDS and not enough to make a tiny tiny dent in the debt the financial institutions are now holding. So what did our elected officials just do? They bailed out their campaign donors and gave them a chance to cash in their chips and leave the game with some cash in their pockets.
.
The sub prime defaults are just a minor diversion that takes your eyes off what has really happened. Huge companies, here and abroad, (CDS started in Europe) committed a fancy complicated form of fraud. They sold insurance that wasn’t really insurance, collected billions in “premiums” that pumped up their books and made billions for their executives and brokers. They often issued a CDS to a buyer to pump up the price of a bond or financial instrument they were selling and thus increased their profits two ways.
.
If a real regulated insurance company had done this the executives would all be indicted, prosecuted and put in jail for a long time. It was fraud and I hope our government will go after these weasels and put them in jail. But I doubt that will happen.
.
The problem right now is that no one knows who is holding what or even how to begin to value holdings. The value of holdings of all kinds have clearly dropped. But by how much? In the sub prime mortgage market, for example, the houses are still out there and clearly they have some considerable value. But how much? The same holds across all the markets. The tangible assets securing most of the loans are still out there. But what are they worth now? We are about to see a huge 100 year shake out on the value of everything and everyone is going to take a hit. The more leveraged any business or individual is the more they are going to devalue. And that is another new aspect of this crash.
.
Super low interest rates made borrowing possible – smart – at rates that would have been unthinkable 20 years ago. 20 years ago being leveraged at a 5 to 1 rate was the normal limit. Today 30 to 1 is normal. 4% interest rates simply could not be ignored and go unused. Hedge funds with 4% interest rates made extreme leveraging even more extreme for large investors and funds. It turns out some hedge funds had 100 to 1 leveraging. (Hedge funds are another unregulated market) So our entire economy, the businesses, the banks, individuals are credit extended like never before in history. So they are all going to be devalued like never before. This is going to be the perfect financial storm. And it isn’t going to end anytime soon.
.
A lot of companies are going to fail – unavoidably. There is going to be a lot of unemployment. A lot of retirement funds are going to fail – including government backed retirement funds like state funds. And the U.S. government cannot bail them all out. But it will try at first. And the government will have unemployment claims and welfare claims like never before. And all this will cause another problem that will cause more pain. Inflation.
.
Inflation like we haven’t seen in decades. Because the only way the government will have to pay off its debts – and they are going to be huge, even compared to our present huge debt – is to print money. Lots of money.
.
We are going to see something unthinkable in the past. High unemployment, bankruptcies, banks closing and a very slow economy, BUT with high inflation because every government in the world is going to print money to try and bail things out.
.
What to do? Getting out of debt would be a good idea. Cash is good – but vulnerable to inflation. Gold is better. Start minimizing your expenses in every way possible. If you are about to retire don’t. Keep the job if the job is still there. If your retirement fund doesn’t go bust, inflation will devalue the retirement payments. Things will settle out. The economy will restart. New companies will be started to replace the ones who go under. The sun will come out again. But not for a long time.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
