I was looking thru Ana and Charlie Gamba's photos and found this one of us at the beach in Fort Lauderdale. Since swimming lessons, the boys have gotten much more comfortable in the water. The love splashing and playing now. I can't wait until next summer!
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Bodhisattva Vow
The Four Great Vows:
I vow to liberate all beings, without number (Green)
I vow to uproot endless blind passions (Red)
I vow to penetrate dharma gates beyond measure (Blue)
I vow to attain the way of the Buddha (Yellow and Black)
Posted a moment ago.
I read this in the latest book from the Dali Lama and decided to paint it. This is how it made my feel.
I vow to liberate all beings, without number (Green)
I vow to uproot endless blind passions (Red)
I vow to penetrate dharma gates beyond measure (Blue)
I vow to attain the way of the Buddha (Yellow and Black)
Posted a moment ago.
I read this in the latest book from the Dali Lama and decided to paint it. This is how it made my feel.
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Friday Night Bike and Dine
So how else can we use the bikes? How about going for dinner? Humm, that's a crazy idea that just might work. After picking our range and what was available we decided to try the new Japanese buffet that replaced the IHOP next to Sedanos on 58th and 107th.
We loaded the boys up for the 15 minute ride over there. One spot the street is missing the curb so Andrea had to help lift the boys trailer back on the side walk. The sling they sit on doesn't have any padding. I took them off a curb one and Ev started crying. It was too much of a jolt for him. I thought he would like it?
We got there and I found a tree to tie up our rides. There were no bike racks. The boys love the noodles and rice. Nathan and Everett both managed to eat some food with chopsticks. Then our server gave us the kiddie version with rubber bands and spacer. They did well eating and stabbing the food.
We loaded back up and headed home. There was some brief crying before they passed out and went to sleep. We road past the house to the frontage road behind our house and to the Doral Meadows park for a quick lap to look at the little league games.
On the way there we were riding into a thunder head with a beautiful lightening going from cloud to cloud. I thought of the songs written in Black Elk Speaks. I just finished reading the book.
On the way home, the heat lightening turned to crackling ground to air lightening with thunder 10 seconds behind it. We picked up the pace and headed home. We got everything packed up before it rained. It felt like it was going to be a big rain, but it sputtered a little bit and then nothing. Just like the end of Black Elks book.
We loaded the boys up for the 15 minute ride over there. One spot the street is missing the curb so Andrea had to help lift the boys trailer back on the side walk. The sling they sit on doesn't have any padding. I took them off a curb one and Ev started crying. It was too much of a jolt for him. I thought he would like it?
We got there and I found a tree to tie up our rides. There were no bike racks. The boys love the noodles and rice. Nathan and Everett both managed to eat some food with chopsticks. Then our server gave us the kiddie version with rubber bands and spacer. They did well eating and stabbing the food.
We loaded back up and headed home. There was some brief crying before they passed out and went to sleep. We road past the house to the frontage road behind our house and to the Doral Meadows park for a quick lap to look at the little league games.
On the way there we were riding into a thunder head with a beautiful lightening going from cloud to cloud. I thought of the songs written in Black Elk Speaks. I just finished reading the book.
On the way home, the heat lightening turned to crackling ground to air lightening with thunder 10 seconds behind it. We picked up the pace and headed home. We got everything packed up before it rained. It felt like it was going to be a big rain, but it sputtered a little bit and then nothing. Just like the end of Black Elks book.
Riding Shark Valley 10/5
Sunday we loaded up our gear and food for a picnic at Shark Valley. Its a 17 mile one lane road that makes a loop in the Everglades. 8 miles in there is a 4 story observation tower with no civilization in site. Several months ago we paid the $15 per person for the 2 hour tram ride with 20 minutes stop at the tower. It wasn't long enough and I dreamed of riding the trail.
Driving there was cloudy with the threat of rain. We were ready to call the ride before we got started. The park road was flooded with 6 inches of water flowing across. The park ranger said the tram was closed due to flooding for 4 days and we could ride 6 miles in on either side of the loop to where they had to close the trail.
We arrived 10 minutes late and cell phones were useless so we couldn't contact Lee and Carmen who were supposed to join us. We loaded up and headed out.
The water was right up to the road. Creatures would jump back into the water as we road past. We saw several groups of baby alligators knowing mom was not far away even if we couldn't see her. One 6 foot gator was laying on the side of the road. He was completly unimpressed with my new bike! I left the camera in the car fearing a big downpour.
1 hour later at 3 miles in the boys started crying. Andrea didn't pack the diaper bag or picnic food as we were going to come back to eat. But that also left the milk bottles back in the car. We tried one some water and turned to head back.
After some crying they both passed out and went to sleep. I parked the bike and trailer and ate while they slept. 10 minutes later Lee and Carmen came off the trail!
They had rented bikes and went to the end and back. There were ahead and behind us. They ate with us and Andrea and I got to know Carmen a bit. She is a new member of SFL-DIR.
The boys woke up and ate. We shared some stories and loaded up again to ride the other side. There were more herons and egrets on this side. We went 2 miles in before turning aorund due to time. Lee and Carmen had to get the rental bikes back or pay a late fee.
We parted company and headed back to civilation. Were nutes, but I love going on these weekend adventures!
Driving there was cloudy with the threat of rain. We were ready to call the ride before we got started. The park road was flooded with 6 inches of water flowing across. The park ranger said the tram was closed due to flooding for 4 days and we could ride 6 miles in on either side of the loop to where they had to close the trail.
We arrived 10 minutes late and cell phones were useless so we couldn't contact Lee and Carmen who were supposed to join us. We loaded up and headed out.
The water was right up to the road. Creatures would jump back into the water as we road past. We saw several groups of baby alligators knowing mom was not far away even if we couldn't see her. One 6 foot gator was laying on the side of the road. He was completly unimpressed with my new bike! I left the camera in the car fearing a big downpour.
1 hour later at 3 miles in the boys started crying. Andrea didn't pack the diaper bag or picnic food as we were going to come back to eat. But that also left the milk bottles back in the car. We tried one some water and turned to head back.
After some crying they both passed out and went to sleep. I parked the bike and trailer and ate while they slept. 10 minutes later Lee and Carmen came off the trail!
They had rented bikes and went to the end and back. There were ahead and behind us. They ate with us and Andrea and I got to know Carmen a bit. She is a new member of SFL-DIR.
The boys woke up and ate. We shared some stories and loaded up again to ride the other side. There were more herons and egrets on this side. We went 2 miles in before turning aorund due to time. Lee and Carmen had to get the rental bikes back or pay a late fee.
We parted company and headed back to civilation. Were nutes, but I love going on these weekend adventures!
We Got Bikes!
Andrea wanted to get out and exercise more. She wanted to get bikes and thought that would be fun to spend some of her bonus on. We went to Bike Tech off Bird Road (SW40th) and had a great experience. We tried on many bikes and went thru all the options. It took over three hours to go from test ride to installing the bike rack, loading up and heading home.
I picked out a Specialize RockHopper. It has the 19" frame, 26" wheels, the Rox Shox 3, spring loaded with lock out for road riding and cantilever brakes. There just is no need for disc in FL and they are higher maintenance.
Andrea picked out the Specialized Carmel Hybrid bike. She had her heart set on an Electra with "flat feet technology" where the peddles are forward so when you stop you are not on your tippy toes, but can put your foot flat on the ground. Her legs were not long enough to take advantage of this. Riding the Carmel just felt right for her. She picked gray to match her dry suit.
One of Andrea's co-workers was nice enough to give us the two seat bike trailer for the boys. I hooked it up to my bike and have no problem towing them around. However, after a ride with them I love to take it off and go for a spin. I feel like I'm flying without the extra drag!
I picked out a Specialize RockHopper. It has the 19" frame, 26" wheels, the Rox Shox 3, spring loaded with lock out for road riding and cantilever brakes. There just is no need for disc in FL and they are higher maintenance.
Andrea picked out the Specialized Carmel Hybrid bike. She had her heart set on an Electra with "flat feet technology" where the peddles are forward so when you stop you are not on your tippy toes, but can put your foot flat on the ground. Her legs were not long enough to take advantage of this. Riding the Carmel just felt right for her. She picked gray to match her dry suit.
One of Andrea's co-workers was nice enough to give us the two seat bike trailer for the boys. I hooked it up to my bike and have no problem towing them around. However, after a ride with them I love to take it off and go for a spin. I feel like I'm flying without the extra drag!
Goliath Grouper at Hole in the Wall
After an hour boat ride back North we got to the site. We took a 90 minute SI before jumping back into the water. The visibility was not as good around 50ft. We got down and hit the ledge. We would blow by groups of 5 and 10 Goliath grouper in the 200-400lb range. David's scooter didn't hold out for the second drop so he put it into tow position and Ron help keep him on the reef. After 15 minutes of drifting we hit the hole in the wall with about 30 Goliath around. The hole was packed with them as well.
I seconded guess penetraing in, but decided it was worth to move in slowly and the VW bug sized fish would move out of my way. If you close at the picture you can see just how many fish were there in just on shot.
After the Hole we hit one more group and then it was just the local fish. There were large Horse Eye Jacks that were pitch black and ready to mate. Small Juvenile fish close to the reef.
Everyone made it back to the boat and we headed back to the dock. I figured my arms were sore from loading the boat. I was wasted by the time we got all the gear back off. The marina is under construction and loading and unloading is not easy at this point. Once finished it will be a great location.
I seconded guess penetraing in, but decided it was worth to move in slowly and the VW bug sized fish would move out of my way. If you close at the picture you can see just how many fish were there in just on shot.
After the Hole we hit one more group and then it was just the local fish. There were large Horse Eye Jacks that were pitch black and ready to mate. Small Juvenile fish close to the reef.
Everyone made it back to the boat and we headed back to the dock. I figured my arms were sore from loading the boat. I was wasted by the time we got all the gear back off. The marina is under construction and loading and unloading is not easy at this point. Once finished it will be a great location.
Diving the Ande off WPB
I was not happy to be right. After loading the gear by humping tanks up and over the gunnal of the boat at high tide we headed out. On the way out the inlet, Randy said that there was reported black water North of Jupiter Inlet going out to 170ft. This report was collaborated by Mike Barnett the week before. We could skip the Mulphin and try for the Ranking and a reef or head south to the Ande and hit Hole in the Wall on the way back up. There was a Goliath Grouper Spawning aggregation at the Hole that would be leaving after the full moon in two days. We decided to take the sure thing.
Our dive profiles just dropped 20ft to 190ft on Ande and 140ft at the Hole in the wall. I had brough my 18/45 because it was already filled and 21/35.
I took over an hour at 8 knots. We geared up, did out checks as the captian ran over the wreck one more time. Ops, there was no wreck. He had the wrong coordinates in the GPS. We had another 20 minutes south to go. David doffed his gear to avoid overheating.
We cheered after finding the wreck and got ready to dive. We had a 400ft lead and Randy said the currents can run slightly East so be ready to head West. After we splashed I saw something fall under David, I dove and caught the hub to Davids Gavin and gave him the broken scooter sign. He had dialed it down to full speed and the pitch held so he could use it on the dive. There was 1.5 knot current and we needed it.
The wreck was not dove much and covered with fishing line. I found some waving in the current 30ft off the side of the wreck. The lights were very useful for finding this.
The stern was listing to starboard. The cargo hold was broken just before the bridge and mostly upright. It was not a clean break and ripped speices jutted out from both sides. At the bow, the main mast was still upright and beautiful in the blue water.
I stopped and got my team to do some fly overs for photos. My scooters trim had changed to nose down, but still just slightly negative, I wondered what was wrong as it didn't seem flooded? The current was also taking all the strengh out of my right arm. I usually shoot with one hand and drive with the other, but fighting the current was taking its toll.
After 20 minutes I was feeling task loaded so I put the camera away and scootered around the wreck. At the stern, the updraft was so strong it held the Gavin in place at full speed. I went over the mast and followed it up and we prepared for deco.
Our ascent and deco ran perfectly. Excpet for one stop I overstayed as I got into the medatative zone. From there up I had fun making eyes at David and Ron to make them thinkt the stop was over too soon without making the hand signal. Its amazing how dialed in a team can get!
Our dive profiles just dropped 20ft to 190ft on Ande and 140ft at the Hole in the wall. I had brough my 18/45 because it was already filled and 21/35.
I took over an hour at 8 knots. We geared up, did out checks as the captian ran over the wreck one more time. Ops, there was no wreck. He had the wrong coordinates in the GPS. We had another 20 minutes south to go. David doffed his gear to avoid overheating.
We cheered after finding the wreck and got ready to dive. We had a 400ft lead and Randy said the currents can run slightly East so be ready to head West. After we splashed I saw something fall under David, I dove and caught the hub to Davids Gavin and gave him the broken scooter sign. He had dialed it down to full speed and the pitch held so he could use it on the dive. There was 1.5 knot current and we needed it.
The wreck was not dove much and covered with fishing line. I found some waving in the current 30ft off the side of the wreck. The lights were very useful for finding this.
The stern was listing to starboard. The cargo hold was broken just before the bridge and mostly upright. It was not a clean break and ripped speices jutted out from both sides. At the bow, the main mast was still upright and beautiful in the blue water.
I stopped and got my team to do some fly overs for photos. My scooters trim had changed to nose down, but still just slightly negative, I wondered what was wrong as it didn't seem flooded? The current was also taking all the strengh out of my right arm. I usually shoot with one hand and drive with the other, but fighting the current was taking its toll.
After 20 minutes I was feeling task loaded so I put the camera away and scootered around the wreck. At the stern, the updraft was so strong it held the Gavin in place at full speed. I went over the mast and followed it up and we prepared for deco.
Our ascent and deco ran perfectly. Excpet for one stop I overstayed as I got into the medatative zone. From there up I had fun making eyes at David and Ron to make them thinkt the stop was over too soon without making the hand signal. Its amazing how dialed in a team can get!
Preparing for the Ande Dive
Getting ready to dive the Mulphin and Rankin, I had some interesting email debates with my team. I found that I had some assumptions that my teammates didn't . The debate didn't really boil down to whose right and wrong so much as two stubborn people were arguing for acknowledgement.
When choosing gasses for 170ft dive and 120ft dive it was trimix and 21/35 all the way with 50% deco. In fact I offered. For the experience cave diver, 32% and 100% deco was a fine strategy proven over and over again in Ginnie. The difference being that Ginnie, with exception of water level, doesn't change. The ocean is constantly changing and many factors can affect a dive plan.
Oceanic dive plans can change on a dime. I knew WPB offered even more intense issues of current, black water, wave height and surge. Not to mention the possibility of an unfriendly fishing boat covering our dive site.
With this in mind 21/25 with 50% for the first dive and 100% for the 2nd dive became the plan.
On the surface interval David wanted to see how he'd look in an Optima?
When choosing gasses for 170ft dive and 120ft dive it was trimix and 21/35 all the way with 50% deco. In fact I offered. For the experience cave diver, 32% and 100% deco was a fine strategy proven over and over again in Ginnie. The difference being that Ginnie, with exception of water level, doesn't change. The ocean is constantly changing and many factors can affect a dive plan.
Oceanic dive plans can change on a dime. I knew WPB offered even more intense issues of current, black water, wave height and surge. Not to mention the possibility of an unfriendly fishing boat covering our dive site.
With this in mind 21/25 with 50% for the first dive and 100% for the 2nd dive became the plan.
On the surface interval David wanted to see how he'd look in an Optima?
Friday, October 10, 2008
The $45.6 trillion Credit Default Swap Crash vs. the $700 bil Sub Prime Crash
I found this posted in the comment section of a news article. I have not verfied the background or facts. It is an intestesting opinion to read with a grain of salt.
--Matt
=================================================================================
This isn't going to settle out until after the Credit Default Swap payoff auctions on Oct 23. Only then will everyone know just how exposed everyone else is. Many banks will fail no matter what the government does. But many will also survive and once shown to be sound their business will resume.
.
What is scary to me about this is the way governments are taking over ownership of private sector financial institutions and private industry. Just think of the banks being run like the IRS or the Post Office - and by the very same people with political mandates. While it would hurt, it would be better to just let many of these banks fail and be replaced with new ones. All this life support is going to do is lead to perpetually sick banks run by politicians for political purposes.
.
.
.
Guess I will repost this for those who didn't see it the first time. Skip it if you have seen it already.
.
The $45.6 trillion Credit Default Swap Crash vs. the $700 bil Sub Prime Crash
.
All of this because 5% of U.S. mortgages are defaulting? This 5% isn’t that big a number compared to the world financial markets. After all, the other 95% are still paying and yielding a cash flow. So if sub primes didn’t cause this what is going on?
.
What is going on is a Credit Default Swap caused crash. A CDS is a form of insurance on loans that pays off if the loan defaults. CDS are totally unregulated and un-monitored by any government agency. CDS are not called insurance because insurance is regulated. If it was called insurance, and regulated, the issuers of the policies would be required to have assets enough to cover any claims. But it isn’t insurance. And it turns out the issuers of CDS never had the assets to cover any claims – even a small claim like the sub prime mortgage defaults. If they had paid off the sub prime defaults everyone would have their money and there would be no bailout.
.
The banks and financial institutions that issued unregulated CDS made billions collecting the premiums (but they are not called premiums because it isn’t insurance). But when the sub prime backed instruments started to default they couldn’t pay off because they had no assets to pay off with. AIG is one example. And everyone noticed and started to worry.
.
The real problem is that CDS were not sold to cover just mortgages loans. They were sold to cover almost every kind of lending instrument. Obviously, a bond that is insured against defaulting is more valuable and higher rated than one that is not insured. So once the CDS began defaulting on the subprime market it became obvious they were worthless insurance on everything else they insured, which is just about everything else out there. So the value of every bond, hedge fund and other investment instrument dropped on the books of every institution holding them. And they dropped fairly sharply.
.
And then there are the CDS themselves. They were on the books as an income producing investment instrument just like a bond from a legitimate insurance company. Now they are virtually worthless. How much were they worth before the truth about them was revealed? $42.6 TRILLION. For perspective, this is equal to the entire household wealth of the U.S.; the U.S. stock market is capitalized at $18.5 trillion. So what really has happened is that the global financial markets have just taken a $42.6 trillion dollar loss of assets.
.
Our recent bailout is only $700 billion, a tiny fraction of the outstanding CDS and not enough to make a tiny tiny dent in the debt the financial institutions are now holding. So what did our elected officials just do? They bailed out their campaign donors and gave them a chance to cash in their chips and leave the game with some cash in their pockets.
.
The sub prime defaults are just a minor diversion that takes your eyes off what has really happened. Huge companies, here and abroad, (CDS started in Europe) committed a fancy complicated form of fraud. They sold insurance that wasn’t really insurance, collected billions in “premiums” that pumped up their books and made billions for their executives and brokers. They often issued a CDS to a buyer to pump up the price of a bond or financial instrument they were selling and thus increased their profits two ways.
.
If a real regulated insurance company had done this the executives would all be indicted, prosecuted and put in jail for a long time. It was fraud and I hope our government will go after these weasels and put them in jail. But I doubt that will happen.
.
The problem right now is that no one knows who is holding what or even how to begin to value holdings. The value of holdings of all kinds have clearly dropped. But by how much? In the sub prime mortgage market, for example, the houses are still out there and clearly they have some considerable value. But how much? The same holds across all the markets. The tangible assets securing most of the loans are still out there. But what are they worth now? We are about to see a huge 100 year shake out on the value of everything and everyone is going to take a hit. The more leveraged any business or individual is the more they are going to devalue. And that is another new aspect of this crash.
.
Super low interest rates made borrowing possible – smart – at rates that would have been unthinkable 20 years ago. 20 years ago being leveraged at a 5 to 1 rate was the normal limit. Today 30 to 1 is normal. 4% interest rates simply could not be ignored and go unused. Hedge funds with 4% interest rates made extreme leveraging even more extreme for large investors and funds. It turns out some hedge funds had 100 to 1 leveraging. (Hedge funds are another unregulated market) So our entire economy, the businesses, the banks, individuals are credit extended like never before in history. So they are all going to be devalued like never before. This is going to be the perfect financial storm. And it isn’t going to end anytime soon.
.
A lot of companies are going to fail – unavoidably. There is going to be a lot of unemployment. A lot of retirement funds are going to fail – including government backed retirement funds like state funds. And the U.S. government cannot bail them all out. But it will try at first. And the government will have unemployment claims and welfare claims like never before. And all this will cause another problem that will cause more pain. Inflation.
.
Inflation like we haven’t seen in decades. Because the only way the government will have to pay off its debts – and they are going to be huge, even compared to our present huge debt – is to print money. Lots of money.
.
We are going to see something unthinkable in the past. High unemployment, bankruptcies, banks closing and a very slow economy, BUT with high inflation because every government in the world is going to print money to try and bail things out.
.
What to do? Getting out of debt would be a good idea. Cash is good – but vulnerable to inflation. Gold is better. Start minimizing your expenses in every way possible. If you are about to retire don’t. Keep the job if the job is still there. If your retirement fund doesn’t go bust, inflation will devalue the retirement payments. Things will settle out. The economy will restart. New companies will be started to replace the ones who go under. The sun will come out again. But not for a long time.
I found this posted in the comment section of a news article. I have not verfied the background or facts. It is an intestesting opinion to read with a grain of salt.
--Matt
=================================================================================
This isn't going to settle out until after the Credit Default Swap payoff auctions on Oct 23. Only then will everyone know just how exposed everyone else is. Many banks will fail no matter what the government does. But many will also survive and once shown to be sound their business will resume.
.
What is scary to me about this is the way governments are taking over ownership of private sector financial institutions and private industry. Just think of the banks being run like the IRS or the Post Office - and by the very same people with political mandates. While it would hurt, it would be better to just let many of these banks fail and be replaced with new ones. All this life support is going to do is lead to perpetually sick banks run by politicians for political purposes.
.
.
.
Guess I will repost this for those who didn't see it the first time. Skip it if you have seen it already.
.
The $45.6 trillion Credit Default Swap Crash vs. the $700 bil Sub Prime Crash
.
All of this because 5% of U.S. mortgages are defaulting? This 5% isn’t that big a number compared to the world financial markets. After all, the other 95% are still paying and yielding a cash flow. So if sub primes didn’t cause this what is going on?
.
What is going on is a Credit Default Swap caused crash. A CDS is a form of insurance on loans that pays off if the loan defaults. CDS are totally unregulated and un-monitored by any government agency. CDS are not called insurance because insurance is regulated. If it was called insurance, and regulated, the issuers of the policies would be required to have assets enough to cover any claims. But it isn’t insurance. And it turns out the issuers of CDS never had the assets to cover any claims – even a small claim like the sub prime mortgage defaults. If they had paid off the sub prime defaults everyone would have their money and there would be no bailout.
.
The banks and financial institutions that issued unregulated CDS made billions collecting the premiums (but they are not called premiums because it isn’t insurance). But when the sub prime backed instruments started to default they couldn’t pay off because they had no assets to pay off with. AIG is one example. And everyone noticed and started to worry.
.
The real problem is that CDS were not sold to cover just mortgages loans. They were sold to cover almost every kind of lending instrument. Obviously, a bond that is insured against defaulting is more valuable and higher rated than one that is not insured. So once the CDS began defaulting on the subprime market it became obvious they were worthless insurance on everything else they insured, which is just about everything else out there. So the value of every bond, hedge fund and other investment instrument dropped on the books of every institution holding them. And they dropped fairly sharply.
.
And then there are the CDS themselves. They were on the books as an income producing investment instrument just like a bond from a legitimate insurance company. Now they are virtually worthless. How much were they worth before the truth about them was revealed? $42.6 TRILLION. For perspective, this is equal to the entire household wealth of the U.S.; the U.S. stock market is capitalized at $18.5 trillion. So what really has happened is that the global financial markets have just taken a $42.6 trillion dollar loss of assets.
.
Our recent bailout is only $700 billion, a tiny fraction of the outstanding CDS and not enough to make a tiny tiny dent in the debt the financial institutions are now holding. So what did our elected officials just do? They bailed out their campaign donors and gave them a chance to cash in their chips and leave the game with some cash in their pockets.
.
The sub prime defaults are just a minor diversion that takes your eyes off what has really happened. Huge companies, here and abroad, (CDS started in Europe) committed a fancy complicated form of fraud. They sold insurance that wasn’t really insurance, collected billions in “premiums” that pumped up their books and made billions for their executives and brokers. They often issued a CDS to a buyer to pump up the price of a bond or financial instrument they were selling and thus increased their profits two ways.
.
If a real regulated insurance company had done this the executives would all be indicted, prosecuted and put in jail for a long time. It was fraud and I hope our government will go after these weasels and put them in jail. But I doubt that will happen.
.
The problem right now is that no one knows who is holding what or even how to begin to value holdings. The value of holdings of all kinds have clearly dropped. But by how much? In the sub prime mortgage market, for example, the houses are still out there and clearly they have some considerable value. But how much? The same holds across all the markets. The tangible assets securing most of the loans are still out there. But what are they worth now? We are about to see a huge 100 year shake out on the value of everything and everyone is going to take a hit. The more leveraged any business or individual is the more they are going to devalue. And that is another new aspect of this crash.
.
Super low interest rates made borrowing possible – smart – at rates that would have been unthinkable 20 years ago. 20 years ago being leveraged at a 5 to 1 rate was the normal limit. Today 30 to 1 is normal. 4% interest rates simply could not be ignored and go unused. Hedge funds with 4% interest rates made extreme leveraging even more extreme for large investors and funds. It turns out some hedge funds had 100 to 1 leveraging. (Hedge funds are another unregulated market) So our entire economy, the businesses, the banks, individuals are credit extended like never before in history. So they are all going to be devalued like never before. This is going to be the perfect financial storm. And it isn’t going to end anytime soon.
.
A lot of companies are going to fail – unavoidably. There is going to be a lot of unemployment. A lot of retirement funds are going to fail – including government backed retirement funds like state funds. And the U.S. government cannot bail them all out. But it will try at first. And the government will have unemployment claims and welfare claims like never before. And all this will cause another problem that will cause more pain. Inflation.
.
Inflation like we haven’t seen in decades. Because the only way the government will have to pay off its debts – and they are going to be huge, even compared to our present huge debt – is to print money. Lots of money.
.
We are going to see something unthinkable in the past. High unemployment, bankruptcies, banks closing and a very slow economy, BUT with high inflation because every government in the world is going to print money to try and bail things out.
.
What to do? Getting out of debt would be a good idea. Cash is good – but vulnerable to inflation. Gold is better. Start minimizing your expenses in every way possible. If you are about to retire don’t. Keep the job if the job is still there. If your retirement fund doesn’t go bust, inflation will devalue the retirement payments. Things will settle out. The economy will restart. New companies will be started to replace the ones who go under. The sun will come out again. But not for a long time.
Monday, September 08, 2008
Catepillars have eaten every leaf!!!
Butterfly Gardening question for you? The caterpillars have shredded every leaf off my two 3ft tall milkweeds and 5 3" tall baby plants I started from seed. The gulf fertility have eat every last weed off my 3ft tall passion vine. There are three more baby's on the vine and no leaves left.
Should I be concerned? Should I peel them off until the plant comes back?
Or
Is this the natural cycle and they the plants will come back when the butts are done laying eggs?
Should I be concerned? Should I peel them off until the plant comes back?
Or
Is this the natural cycle and they the plants will come back when the butts are done laying eggs?
Unlocked Gate to Kerr Dam Powerplant
Unlocked Gate to Kerr Dam Powerplant
As part 2 to my locked fire hydrant picture, here's the unlocked Kerr Dam Power Plant Facility. Now, what is wrong with this picture. A fire hydrant used to protect personal property is locked, but a power plant with three generators supplying power to 120,000 households is unlocked and there is no video surveillance. Anyone can drive down to the dam and walk right up to this gate. In all honesty, it tells me that we are under very little threat from terrorists. Little things are being done that can be seen and felt like locked fire hydrants and 3 oz bottles of liquid in your carry on at airports so you can avoid the $50 checked bag fee.
As part 2 to my locked fire hydrant picture, here's the unlocked Kerr Dam Power Plant Facility. Now, what is wrong with this picture. A fire hydrant used to protect personal property is locked, but a power plant with three generators supplying power to 120,000 households is unlocked and there is no video surveillance. Anyone can drive down to the dam and walk right up to this gate. In all honesty, it tells me that we are under very little threat from terrorists. Little things are being done that can be seen and felt like locked fire hydrants and 3 oz bottles of liquid in your carry on at airports so you can avoid the $50 checked bag fee.
Homeland Security Locked This Fire Hydrant
Homeland Security Locked This Fire Hydrant
Yes, believe it or not, Homeland Security has ordered that every fire hydrant in the US be "locked" to protect us from terrorists. There was a home in Mission Bay Montana that caught first last year. Neighbors kept the first under control with garden hoses until the first department arrived. They took over and everything went well, until the tanker truck went dry. They couldn't find the key and get the hydrant unlocked. In the mean time the fire kicked back up and finished off the rest of the house. I guess that puts another win in the terrorist column.
Yes, believe it or not, Homeland Security has ordered that every fire hydrant in the US be "locked" to protect us from terrorists. There was a home in Mission Bay Montana that caught first last year. Neighbors kept the first under control with garden hoses until the first department arrived. They took over and everything went well, until the tanker truck went dry. They couldn't find the key and get the hydrant unlocked. In the mean time the fire kicked back up and finished off the rest of the house. I guess that puts another win in the terrorist column.
Monday, August 18, 2008
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Sunday July 13th SFL-DIR Afternoon Dive
Mike and Kim took us out on Fish Food. The boat was comfortably full. David was diving with our new member Lee and Keat to get ready for DIR F. Andrea and I were taking the scooters out for another run. I want to get it in the water one more time before taking it deeper. Mike dropped Bob on the tie off and then dropped us in the middle of the rock pile betten the United Caribbean and Sea Emperor. It was perfect, we headed east and hit the Noula Express bow in 3 minutes!
I turned the pitch and just stared at the bow section of the wreck. I was putting it back together in my mind's eye. The new angles are very cool. I love the fact this wreck is right next to the reef line for more fish. We cruised over the cargo area and the submarine. The stern looked really abused. Almost like it turned some. Going around to the rear, the swing thur looked like it had been crushed or collapsed. I wasn't going in there. We drifted down the bottom on the stern enjoying the flow of water water. There was quite a mix between 82 and 77 degree water all over.
We scootered south down the reef and went from patch to patch. We didn't hit the rock pile, but ran right into the culverts of the Sea Emperor. We cruised looking in all the corners. I didn't see the batfish on the South edge of the barge. We floated down the West facing edge. Quite a bit of fish life I never noticed before as all the action for divers is on the East side.
There was no nurse sharks or Goliath under the barge. The swim thru looked big enough to fit thru, but I knew Andrea wouldn't be cool with that. We drifted over the culverts again and headed out for the rock pile. Ther was another dive boat over head and I looked up from the DM making the tie, but I think out bubbles scared them off temporary. Capt. Mike knew our dive plan and probably radioed over.
We passed two divers on the rock pile back to the United Caribbean. The poor goatfish didn't know if we were coming or going. There were cruising to both sides trying to get out of the way.
The UC was all tore up from my last trip. The stern had rolled over on the port side. The cargo walls were broken off and the bow just sat there. We looked for the other team. There were on the starboard side heading for the bow. PERFECT set up, I told the team I would try to surprise them. We went down to the sand and headed around the point of the bow. Keat was in the lead and looking at the wreck as I started to flash him an OOA. He looked back at his team and everything was just fine. Confused he looked forward into the light and saw my open mouth in disbelief. Then he deployed is long hose and went to his back up. He was 5 seconds from a head on collision with the Gavin. Add, "knocking out diver underwater and taking their gas supply" as another scooter benefit! On the boat, we were joking about the Planet Earth Disk 4 diaries showing the hot air balloon crashing into the Balboa tree.
Lee was looking really good in the water and was paying close attention to what was going on. We scootered past and headed to the stern. I couldn't resist scootering down the port side hallway and back out. My new Dive Rite First stages to a full impact at the end as I missed the exit by a few inches. Looking around the rear I wanted to make it up on the Starboard side and did it again, perfectly!
Andrea headed back to the line and we started our ascent. The mixed temp water was going to cause some current up shallow. I adjusted the pitch of my prop and stayed with the line in the current with the scooter. Andrea stopped scootering and went for the line. I kept looking for her and didn't get a problem or issue? Why was she doing things the hard way?
At 40ft the current was up to .5 knot or more and she strained to get the scooter tow cable thru the handle and clipped off to the line so she had two hands to hold on. What the scooter dead? I kept mine live and watched what was going on so that I had the most options if Andrea or the scooter came loose. At the surface, we were tied in bow first with no granny line. The scooter was floating there and Andrea had let go and went back to the stern. The current was ripping and the waves were moving the line.
Staying calm under stress, I held my scooter and the line with one hand. I worked her scooter free and clipped it off to my D ring and get it behind my legs. Now I can drift back to the boat. After letting go, I just got my scooter on to pull me out from hitting the bow of Fishfood.
I grabbed the tag line as I flew past the stern. The small poly line slipped thru my gloves like butter. The current and drag of two scooters was pulling me back. I held on as Kim pulled me in. I handed up Andrea's scooter first. Then got mine up and me back on the boat. Yipes that was not fun!
On the boat I debriefed with Andrea. What was wrong with the scooter? "Nothing" she said. Why did you stop being a scooter diver and grab the line? "Because I don't like current. The scooter was pulling her forward and she couldn't get the prop pitch right. Well she didn't the right thing be not getting behind the up line with the scooter as that would be when it fails. But if she stayed scootering, it would have been a lot easier for both of us. We will work on adjusting speed on the next dive.
We had a full gale storm on and rough seas on the 40 minute trek South to Lighthouse ledge. I stayed in my gear and tried to stay warm in the cold freshwater rinse.
We decided to leave the scooters behind and drift in the nice current with the other team. Andrea and I got into Zen dive mode and tuned into the fish. I missed her signal to see the Long snout butterfly fish right as we got down. I did see the green moray being cleaned by 5 neon gobies and several Spanish Hogfish juveniles.
Not being able to hold back I had to get into the drills with Keat and Lee. Valve drills and S drills were looking good. They had a good command of the basic 5. I blew some bubbles by purging the back up reg to see how the reacted. Lee was right there. Keat developed a new technique of closing both valves at the same time. This really saves gas. I was worried he was going to cause a real OOA so I hovered at his face with my long hose in front of his nose. He stopped and completed a valve drill so he was set back to normal.
At the end of the dive I surfaced first. David was winding up the reel so I pushed the dive flag down to him to make him thing he was coming up. He had a classic look on his face when he was at 5 feet, saw the flag float and then I let go of it to bring him up.
David did a great job of running thru and how's and why's of DIR diving. He also explained the need for the skills dives to get past thinking about the gear and just diving as a team. Andrea said that she is still thinking about the scooter too much and not enjoying the dive yet. She just needs more time, dives, and practice.
Mike and Kim took us out on Fish Food. The boat was comfortably full. David was diving with our new member Lee and Keat to get ready for DIR F. Andrea and I were taking the scooters out for another run. I want to get it in the water one more time before taking it deeper. Mike dropped Bob on the tie off and then dropped us in the middle of the rock pile betten the United Caribbean and Sea Emperor. It was perfect, we headed east and hit the Noula Express bow in 3 minutes!
I turned the pitch and just stared at the bow section of the wreck. I was putting it back together in my mind's eye. The new angles are very cool. I love the fact this wreck is right next to the reef line for more fish. We cruised over the cargo area and the submarine. The stern looked really abused. Almost like it turned some. Going around to the rear, the swing thur looked like it had been crushed or collapsed. I wasn't going in there. We drifted down the bottom on the stern enjoying the flow of water water. There was quite a mix between 82 and 77 degree water all over.
We scootered south down the reef and went from patch to patch. We didn't hit the rock pile, but ran right into the culverts of the Sea Emperor. We cruised looking in all the corners. I didn't see the batfish on the South edge of the barge. We floated down the West facing edge. Quite a bit of fish life I never noticed before as all the action for divers is on the East side.
There was no nurse sharks or Goliath under the barge. The swim thru looked big enough to fit thru, but I knew Andrea wouldn't be cool with that. We drifted over the culverts again and headed out for the rock pile. Ther was another dive boat over head and I looked up from the DM making the tie, but I think out bubbles scared them off temporary. Capt. Mike knew our dive plan and probably radioed over.
We passed two divers on the rock pile back to the United Caribbean. The poor goatfish didn't know if we were coming or going. There were cruising to both sides trying to get out of the way.
The UC was all tore up from my last trip. The stern had rolled over on the port side. The cargo walls were broken off and the bow just sat there. We looked for the other team. There were on the starboard side heading for the bow. PERFECT set up, I told the team I would try to surprise them. We went down to the sand and headed around the point of the bow. Keat was in the lead and looking at the wreck as I started to flash him an OOA. He looked back at his team and everything was just fine. Confused he looked forward into the light and saw my open mouth in disbelief. Then he deployed is long hose and went to his back up. He was 5 seconds from a head on collision with the Gavin. Add, "knocking out diver underwater and taking their gas supply" as another scooter benefit! On the boat, we were joking about the Planet Earth Disk 4 diaries showing the hot air balloon crashing into the Balboa tree.
Lee was looking really good in the water and was paying close attention to what was going on. We scootered past and headed to the stern. I couldn't resist scootering down the port side hallway and back out. My new Dive Rite First stages to a full impact at the end as I missed the exit by a few inches. Looking around the rear I wanted to make it up on the Starboard side and did it again, perfectly!
Andrea headed back to the line and we started our ascent. The mixed temp water was going to cause some current up shallow. I adjusted the pitch of my prop and stayed with the line in the current with the scooter. Andrea stopped scootering and went for the line. I kept looking for her and didn't get a problem or issue? Why was she doing things the hard way?
At 40ft the current was up to .5 knot or more and she strained to get the scooter tow cable thru the handle and clipped off to the line so she had two hands to hold on. What the scooter dead? I kept mine live and watched what was going on so that I had the most options if Andrea or the scooter came loose. At the surface, we were tied in bow first with no granny line. The scooter was floating there and Andrea had let go and went back to the stern. The current was ripping and the waves were moving the line.
Staying calm under stress, I held my scooter and the line with one hand. I worked her scooter free and clipped it off to my D ring and get it behind my legs. Now I can drift back to the boat. After letting go, I just got my scooter on to pull me out from hitting the bow of Fishfood.
I grabbed the tag line as I flew past the stern. The small poly line slipped thru my gloves like butter. The current and drag of two scooters was pulling me back. I held on as Kim pulled me in. I handed up Andrea's scooter first. Then got mine up and me back on the boat. Yipes that was not fun!
On the boat I debriefed with Andrea. What was wrong with the scooter? "Nothing" she said. Why did you stop being a scooter diver and grab the line? "Because I don't like current. The scooter was pulling her forward and she couldn't get the prop pitch right. Well she didn't the right thing be not getting behind the up line with the scooter as that would be when it fails. But if she stayed scootering, it would have been a lot easier for both of us. We will work on adjusting speed on the next dive.
We had a full gale storm on and rough seas on the 40 minute trek South to Lighthouse ledge. I stayed in my gear and tried to stay warm in the cold freshwater rinse.
We decided to leave the scooters behind and drift in the nice current with the other team. Andrea and I got into Zen dive mode and tuned into the fish. I missed her signal to see the Long snout butterfly fish right as we got down. I did see the green moray being cleaned by 5 neon gobies and several Spanish Hogfish juveniles.
Not being able to hold back I had to get into the drills with Keat and Lee. Valve drills and S drills were looking good. They had a good command of the basic 5. I blew some bubbles by purging the back up reg to see how the reacted. Lee was right there. Keat developed a new technique of closing both valves at the same time. This really saves gas. I was worried he was going to cause a real OOA so I hovered at his face with my long hose in front of his nose. He stopped and completed a valve drill so he was set back to normal.
At the end of the dive I surfaced first. David was winding up the reel so I pushed the dive flag down to him to make him thing he was coming up. He had a classic look on his face when he was at 5 feet, saw the flag float and then I let go of it to bring him up.
David did a great job of running thru and how's and why's of DIR diving. He also explained the need for the skills dives to get past thinking about the gear and just diving as a team. Andrea said that she is still thinking about the scooter too much and not enjoying the dive yet. She just needs more time, dives, and practice.
Amazon.com: The Alchemy of Finance (Wiley Investment Classics): George Soros, Paul A. Volcker: Books
I've heard the name George Soros and decided to check out another successful investor besides Warren Buffet and Benjamin Graham. This book is one of those books that took a corner stone concept in my mind and pulled the rug out from underneath it!
I finished two economics classes at Iowa State with a B-. The two concepts that stick with me are Marginal Utility and Supply and Demand. Marginal Utility states that there is a U shaped curve the the demand for a product. The first donut is really good. The second is almost as good. The third is the top of the curve, I've had enough. The fourth decrease my enjoyment and the fifth gives me a tummy ache making me worse off that when I started eating donuts.
The second concept was supply and demand. The power of glorious capitalism and miracle of supply and demade to sort out any issue when it comes to how much of what to produce? The first thing George taught was that supply and demand are NOT plotted on the same curve. Supply is completely separate from demand. The second thing is that for the two curves to be on the same graph, it was require "perfect knowledge" of suppliers and demanders. Just as a Marxist command economy does not have the perfect knowledge of what and how much to produce, neither does the market.
The advantage of the market is that with cycles and periods of boom and bust, expansion and contraction the economy drives forwards. Its just that there is a manic depressive psychopath at the wheel and a lot of people get run over along the way.
The major benefit of Marxism is that the economy is much more stable. Some may say there is less opportunity, but there is certainly less up and down.
The major benefit of the Markets is that there is instability, wide changes, and lots of opportunity to make and loose and fortune. But why are things so unstable. George was writing at time of credit boom and cheap money made for cop orate merger mania. Credit was contracting and driving down the value of collateral. Gee, just what is happening with now withe burst housing bubble. I just need to figure out what George did and then I can do the same thing!
Not quite that easy. The next super cool concept was "Reflective Connection" between ideas. His point is that the markets are not scientific, but closer to quantum physics. The act of studying a "thing" effects how the thing reacts. That is a much deeper understanding of the bi-polar Mr. Market. Why aren't there drugs to regulate this problem? Its called the government. The issue is, as a boom takes shape. No one can stop it. Everyone rides the tide until the bust. Then the contraction takes place and creates a crisis. Only a crises can bond affected parties together to remedy the situation.
Take our housing boom. Could the government really do anything to stop it? Not really, except raise interest rates, but would have affected other sectors. Could Bank of America stop participating and stop it from happening? Not really, if they didn't make the loans, someone else would have. Not that the bust is here, BOA can buy Country wide, all the banks will tighten lending strategies and a lot of mortgage brokers will be looking for other jobs. The Government couldn't forcee the new bundle mortgage derivative product, so it didn't regulate it. Now in hindsight, regulations will be put into place to prevent this type of bubble from occurring again. But don't despair, it 10, 15 or 20 years, a new bubble will form and the same thing will happen again, just in a different way. Regulation is necessary, but not preventative.
Now this is the depressing part. It takes a crisis to get all the parties to focus on an issue and get it under control. As soon as the pressure of the crisis is over so will the teamwork. Then business will go about as usual. We never fix anything, we just band aid it and move on. Pick any topic you want, and you'll see the same thing. This is why the boom lasts longer than the bust. The bust is painful, but never as long as the boom. You just have to muddle thru it until the next bubble starts to form somewhere else.
This is inherit in free markets and explains the misconception that markets are supposed to bring stability as equilibrium is reached. Instead, they lead swinging extremes of boom and bust, expansion and contraction. Things are always better than they really are or worse than they really are. Its just a matter of following the trend and not being the last one out the door when the trend reverses.
Perhaps that's a better detailed explanation of the cliche, "Bulls make money and Bears make money but Pigs get slaughtered." The trend will always reverse, its just that know one knows when or why? They make up the why after it happens and attribute it to some event that is probably more coincidence than reality. That's why you feel bad thinking, "Man, I never so that coming!" But the next time "that" happens, it doesn't turn a trend. Humm, that's the Reflective part!
The beginning third of Geoges book was great. The experiment was waaayyy over my head. The end, like the market was a bust. There was no "secert" to making money in this crazy economy. No magic bullet that worked in the 80s and now will work in 2008.
What George did teach me was not what anyone wants to hear. He said that when he was studing specific events. His trading went to hell. When he wasn't paying attention any more, his trading when to hell. When he was actually writing down and journaling the thought process behind his trading he did much better. There is a word for this. Its in every self help book on the planet. Got it yet?
Its called, "Goal Setting"! By writing down his plan, George was making a goal. When the market went against the trade, George held on, past the point of normally jumping ship and reversing himself. Most of the time that worked. Some of the time, he got whacked. Reading the experiment section, he dwells on the losses to the point you think he is not making any more. Until you see tha stuff that is working is up and he does 120% in one year!
So its less of what your do and more about why your doing it? What is your goal, what is your plan? Write it down!
Not knowing how to make money in a down market, I just went to cash. After 6 months, I stopped following the markets and looking to get in. I've missed a few rallies. Now I'm getting in with my few favorite stocks with a buy and hold as they are all 50% off their value.
True story, I meant to sell my 100 shares of Panera Bread at $38 which would have been a loss from buying at $55. I clicked the wrong button and put in a buy order. Which was filled before the price dropped to around $30. Oh I was pissed. But it was a great price on a good company. PNRA is the only stock I'm up on right now. I've picked up some GRMN, and HANS as they are two favorites from the past. I will hold them thru a year for the lower tax rate, but then, they will be back up and they are the kind of stocks that will run up. I also plan to start selling covered calls on them.
I've picked up some SIGM Sigma Designs as that stock is a fav of my optometrist. Chicos, CHS, is featured in Rule #1 and I lost a bundle buying at $30, $20, and selling for a loss. Its down to $5 now and the company is still strong, it just needs to reorganize so it can turn around. I'm still 60% in cash, but now I'm back in the game and it feels good to "worry" about not check the markey and prices as now I have something to watch. While I'm there, I'm looking to see what is the next big boom or bust and how can I profit from it?
Friday July 4th, Datura Scooter Dive
Andrea and I wanted to try out the new Gavin on an easy dive. The weighting seemed really good in the fresh water tank so I added the 1lb to the nose and packed it up.
It was a nice calm morning, the parking was packed for fireworks at 7:45 AM. Luckily someone left as we waited. We had breakfast and then went diving. The scooters staged by the shower generated a lot of comments from the locals. At least no one asked me if there were sharks out there.
We headed out to the snorkel trail where Andrea adjust here leash to get it just right so the scooter tracked straight an didn't pull up or down. I made up some extra leashes to give away. Most are going to be too short for my team members, but it was good practice getting my own readjusted and adjusting a few new ones.
We took off for the second reef and were there in 5 minutes. Much better than the 20 minutes it takes to swim it. We turned south. We went all the way past Palm Street until the reef flatten out in about 40 minutes at an easy pace. We turned North, past Datura and went to the big corals past the peir. We found the school of Surgenfish and schools of baby Jacks 3 inchs long. They hung was us for "protection". We turned back and headed for Datura. At the first reef line, I decided to go for it all and head back South to the big coral with all the glassy sweepers. We found it with ease and I was surprised with how many were there. There was three big schools of different age ranges and sizes in the area.
We cruised back to the snorkel trail and then in to Datura. 122 mintues round trip with 18ft max depth. Visiblity was about 30ft, A- conditions for beach diving. We crawled out, hauled the scooters up the beach, rinsed and then put out the beach chairs for 90s minutes of relaxation. We missed the boys, but had a great day!
Andrea and I wanted to try out the new Gavin on an easy dive. The weighting seemed really good in the fresh water tank so I added the 1lb to the nose and packed it up.
It was a nice calm morning, the parking was packed for fireworks at 7:45 AM. Luckily someone left as we waited. We had breakfast and then went diving. The scooters staged by the shower generated a lot of comments from the locals. At least no one asked me if there were sharks out there.
We headed out to the snorkel trail where Andrea adjust here leash to get it just right so the scooter tracked straight an didn't pull up or down. I made up some extra leashes to give away. Most are going to be too short for my team members, but it was good practice getting my own readjusted and adjusting a few new ones.
We took off for the second reef and were there in 5 minutes. Much better than the 20 minutes it takes to swim it. We turned south. We went all the way past Palm Street until the reef flatten out in about 40 minutes at an easy pace. We turned North, past Datura and went to the big corals past the peir. We found the school of Surgenfish and schools of baby Jacks 3 inchs long. They hung was us for "protection". We turned back and headed for Datura. At the first reef line, I decided to go for it all and head back South to the big coral with all the glassy sweepers. We found it with ease and I was surprised with how many were there. There was three big schools of different age ranges and sizes in the area.
We cruised back to the snorkel trail and then in to Datura. 122 mintues round trip with 18ft max depth. Visiblity was about 30ft, A- conditions for beach diving. We crawled out, hauled the scooters up the beach, rinsed and then put out the beach chairs for 90s minutes of relaxation. We missed the boys, but had a great day!
Sunday, July 06, 2008
Amazon.com: Rule #1: The Simple Strategy for Successful Investing in Only 15 Minutes a Week!: Phil Town: Books
A friend wrote me saying that he finally finished reading Rule #1 by Phil Town. He asked how its going for me 2 years later?
My reply.....
It worked out really well for me. I did 36% in my first year using MSN money to research and track my portfolio. Not wanting to confuse brains with a bull market, things overall were running up right up to Nov 2007 when the credit crash happened. I was in at a good overall time. I knew it was coming and got out in Sept. I missed two great months of gains, but I was sitting in cash for my stocks and 401K when it dropped like a rock.
A recession brings about a 20% drop in the Dow. I figured that means I didn't want to get back in until it hit 11,500 as a signal of being near the bottom. Just like I couldn't figure out the top before it happened, I can't figure out the bottom either. The credit crunch needs another 6 months for the mortgage/finance industry to sort out and stabilize.
My best pics were Florida Rock 80% (bought out by Vulcan Materials). Garmin 150% GRMN and Hansons 110%. There are about 15 other losers in the mix that brought my overall average down to 36%. Lowes, Home Depot, Bed Bath and Beyond, Chicos, and Williams Sonoma name a few losers that seemed good at the time.
It seems backwards, but its not the winners, but how many losers you have that make the difference. I've been doing a lot of background reading on Buffet, Graham, and Dodd. I'm reading George Soros now.
After not being able to predict the crash, I spent $1000 of my profit on an Investools Stock Course. I learned what I was missing is the purchasing stock only makes you money when the market goes up. Buffet says we'll have 12 years of sideways markets before the next bull rally. I saw the crash coming, but didn't know how to profit by it. Now I've been reading up on Options. That's the trick to making money in all market directions. However, there is a big penalty for errors. :) It sounds good on paper, I have yet to click a trade as the power is intimidating.
The investools Options course is $5000 and I'm not ready for that kind of investment yet. I like to read books for free from the library to get a broad prospective and it works as an antidote to lure of "get rich quick" promises of all the books.
Knowing how to research and understand the value of a company is a great starting point. Its the 101 of investing and it takes time for all this to soak in. I'm not a math person, but I'm finally staring to get it. My advice is don't rush and just let it soak in.
The only other thing I can say is that all my big losses, started as little losses. I've learned to love small losses and get out at the first sign of trouble. I can always get back in. Trading commissions are so small now compared to what they used to be.
Another good rule I wish I knew from the start was the 10% rule. Don't invest more that 10% of your available assests in any one trade. I was always guessing how much to purchase?
Save all our paperwork and keep your transactions logged somewhere online. Taxes are a be-yatch! I hope you use an accountant, I scared Andrea off from doing ours this year.
The most encouraging part is that no one is going to take as good of care of my money as me. Mutual funds are a scam, you'll probably want to get in a fight at your next 401K meeting as they serve up the BS. The difference instead of thinking its BS and just not opening your statements, you'll know its BS and learn how to minimize the downside and look for the upside potential. Most importantly you won't be afraid to let it sit in cash (or low yield bond fund) until a better opportunity presents itself.
Currently I'm about 20% invested 80% cash.
I'm holding GRMN, HANS, PNRA, and MMM right now. My next move is to sell covered calls on the first three as soon as I can figure out how to do it on the Bank of America website.
Keep in touch, I've only a few other people I speak with about investing and I'd love to get a club or group going. Discussing what is going on is the best way to keep it interesting. Once you put trades it, you'll watch them like a hawk. When I got out in cash, I lost interest and had to force myself to get back in the habit.
What's your first move?
Stopwatch vs. Bottom Timer, Why The Stopwatch Is A Better Way?
I've read arguments and debates on whether to use a stopwatch or bottom timer when timing decompression in technical diving. After over 75 dives experimenting both ways I offer an argument why the stopwatch is a better way.
First, my reason has nothing to do with decompression theory. Since there is no real benefit in accuracy or measurable difference in stops.
The advantage of the stopwatch is that it allows the team to more accurately follow their dive plan. The closer the plan is followed the more clarity is offered in making decisions and determining problems. The faster a problem is identified, the faster it can be fixed.
When preparing a dive plan, limits are placed on distance, bottom time, gas consumption. The ascent and decompression is agreeded upon. All tasks are identified and assigned to the team before jumping into the water.
The Stopwatch allows the team to more closly follow the decompression. If the team determins 25 minutes of decompression is appropriate, that is what should be done.
With the team setting their stopwatches after the gas switch, there are all on the same page. Any deviation from the ascent plan can be identified in less than 30 seconds. Quickly being alerted to the issue allows the team to question if there is an issue? Usualy the person timing deco gets distracted and all continues as normal. If there is a serious issue now it can be worked out. Perhaps there was an change in deco plan or the person is not feeling well.
The real benefit is a better dive. The more black and white the plan, the less time during the dive are you distracted by the shades of gray in predicting what is going to happen next? Once you know everything is planned, any small deviation from the plan will be questioned, you can relax and take comfort in your awareness and of your teammates.
The less you think about the dive, the more your enjoy the dive.
I've read arguments and debates on whether to use a stopwatch or bottom timer when timing decompression in technical diving. After over 75 dives experimenting both ways I offer an argument why the stopwatch is a better way.
First, my reason has nothing to do with decompression theory. Since there is no real benefit in accuracy or measurable difference in stops.
The advantage of the stopwatch is that it allows the team to more accurately follow their dive plan. The closer the plan is followed the more clarity is offered in making decisions and determining problems. The faster a problem is identified, the faster it can be fixed.
When preparing a dive plan, limits are placed on distance, bottom time, gas consumption. The ascent and decompression is agreeded upon. All tasks are identified and assigned to the team before jumping into the water.
The Stopwatch allows the team to more closly follow the decompression. If the team determins 25 minutes of decompression is appropriate, that is what should be done.
With the team setting their stopwatches after the gas switch, there are all on the same page. Any deviation from the ascent plan can be identified in less than 30 seconds. Quickly being alerted to the issue allows the team to question if there is an issue? Usualy the person timing deco gets distracted and all continues as normal. If there is a serious issue now it can be worked out. Perhaps there was an change in deco plan or the person is not feeling well.
The real benefit is a better dive. The more black and white the plan, the less time during the dive are you distracted by the shades of gray in predicting what is going to happen next? Once you know everything is planned, any small deviation from the plan will be questioned, you can relax and take comfort in your awareness and of your teammates.
The less you think about the dive, the more your enjoy the dive.
The Usurper of Democracy
Bravo JuanCarlos, The Usurper of Democracy SHOWDOWN
One of Andrea's friends from school has a brother that is an artist.
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Miami Project Dives the Doc De Milly and Almirante
We took the DIR Express South to the Doc De Milly. 35 minutes travel time over 20 minutes faster than the Depreciation. The back up scooter was still at Brownies getting worked on so Henry had to swim it. Jody and David power scootered the whole wreck while we swam it for photos.
On the drop, three Caribbean Reef Sharks were circling down below. This was a first on this wreck. They noticed us and kept at minimum safe distance (visual range). I could not get close enough for a shot. The Goliath Groupers ducked into their holes in the wreck as we approached.
On the West side of the stern there were three Eagle rays at 100ft holding steady in the current. I scootered under them and shot up against the sun. I love the image that came out of it. After leaving Henry, I quickly headed back for him.
Down in the sand I caught Jody and David heading over the cargo hold. We tagged up several times on the dive. I towed Henry up to the bow and ducked down to the wide gash up front. I played hide and seek with the Goliath that hangs out in there. I finally caught him smiling.
From the bow we headed out to the east side of the wreck. There was debris and three large open rectangles that were opened up for water to flow thru. They look like they could be cargo containers with a few sides open? They are 75ft off the wreck and we were out of the lee of the current. It was a struggle to tow Henry back to the wreck.
Jody and David thumbed the dive at 25 minutes. Henry and I had plenty of gas left so we added 5 minutes to the bottom time. As time approached, Henry prepped his lift bag and reel at the top of the wreck. He stuff the liftbag in his waistband and secured the reel to a chest d ring. We ascended to 70ft, switched to deco gas and I signaled for him to shoot the bag. I did not understand the signal for "broken", put your hands together like your going to break spaghetti into two and toss it into the pot. I could see there was a problem, most likely a reel jam so I deployed my lift bag. During the explanation we lost control of our buoyancy by 10ft. This was an major error on my part. Once the broken bag was tucked away and mine deployed we went into a normal deco.
I was running the deco and Henry was following along. I signaled at 20ft for 8 minutes deco. Henry replied with "8" so I knew he got it. We had planned 150ft for 25 minutes. Most of the dive was spent on the deck at 140ft so I didn't see any need to expand the deco. But I was curious what Henry would do if I over stayed the stop?
I overstayed for 5 minutes and there was no question of the deco time. Henry thought I was adding the time on due to the extended bottom time. During the debrief we discussed asking questions when the plan is not being followed. I've been debating the stop watch vs. bottom timer deco question in my head and I believe that the stopwatch is better. I'll save that dissertation for another blog post.
Next dive was the Almirante. Henry wanted some time driving the boat so Jody, David, and I teamed up. The wreck was beautiful and the visibility exceptional. We landed at the stern, I prepped my camera and scootered around to the starboard side.
I ran head on into a school of horse-eye jacks. They pulled up hard to get out of the way of the big black object scootering right at them. Running down the side I noticed want makes this wreck so different. Usually the cargo hold plates fall out away from the wreck when it comes apart. The starboard side of then wreck has been push in and flattened like God stopped the wreck like an Aluminium can?
While deep in thought, I almost missed the three Eagle Rays flying over our heads. I turned down the prop pitch to full power and started a pursuit with my camera! Out of the corner of my eye I saw a white flash? I had cut into the middle of the squad and the 4th ray turned 90 degrees and headed up to the bow. The other three made two quick flaps of their wings and were out of sight immediately. I knew that following them with a Gavin was at their discretion. They have much more power. Picking up the 4th ray it circled back over the wreck and then left us behind with the same quick flap of the wings.
At the bow I dropped down to look the hull metal. The explosion that sunk the Almirante peeled the hull plates back like a banana. They used to use big explosions to sink reefs wit ha a big show. The problem was they destroyed the wrecks of the quick flood of water caused them to sink at wrong angles. Now there are much slower and precise about completely flooding the ship and putting her down upright without the 4th of July show.
At the bow I stopped to admire the impression growth of deepwater sea fans on the winch. It is a good 7 ft tall and thick. I'm glad no anchors have cut thru it. It is beautiful.
We headed back towards the stern. I saw a swim thru big enough to scooter thru. Inside I waved David over to the skylights to frame him. He came in and followed up thru.
Outside I stopped and turned to get the exiting diver shot. Jody was looking away, but David made a good pose. I think I need to send this one to George for the Gavin Scooter Website.
I grabbed a few photo of Creole Wrasse and Chub at the stern. David thumbed the dive 2 minutes ahead of schedule. After a long debate, David declared himself innocent of the early thumb! Never tell a German his is wrong!
We took the DIR Express South to the Doc De Milly. 35 minutes travel time over 20 minutes faster than the Depreciation. The back up scooter was still at Brownies getting worked on so Henry had to swim it. Jody and David power scootered the whole wreck while we swam it for photos.
On the drop, three Caribbean Reef Sharks were circling down below. This was a first on this wreck. They noticed us and kept at minimum safe distance (visual range). I could not get close enough for a shot. The Goliath Groupers ducked into their holes in the wreck as we approached.
On the West side of the stern there were three Eagle rays at 100ft holding steady in the current. I scootered under them and shot up against the sun. I love the image that came out of it. After leaving Henry, I quickly headed back for him.
Down in the sand I caught Jody and David heading over the cargo hold. We tagged up several times on the dive. I towed Henry up to the bow and ducked down to the wide gash up front. I played hide and seek with the Goliath that hangs out in there. I finally caught him smiling.
From the bow we headed out to the east side of the wreck. There was debris and three large open rectangles that were opened up for water to flow thru. They look like they could be cargo containers with a few sides open? They are 75ft off the wreck and we were out of the lee of the current. It was a struggle to tow Henry back to the wreck.
Jody and David thumbed the dive at 25 minutes. Henry and I had plenty of gas left so we added 5 minutes to the bottom time. As time approached, Henry prepped his lift bag and reel at the top of the wreck. He stuff the liftbag in his waistband and secured the reel to a chest d ring. We ascended to 70ft, switched to deco gas and I signaled for him to shoot the bag. I did not understand the signal for "broken", put your hands together like your going to break spaghetti into two and toss it into the pot. I could see there was a problem, most likely a reel jam so I deployed my lift bag. During the explanation we lost control of our buoyancy by 10ft. This was an major error on my part. Once the broken bag was tucked away and mine deployed we went into a normal deco.
I was running the deco and Henry was following along. I signaled at 20ft for 8 minutes deco. Henry replied with "8" so I knew he got it. We had planned 150ft for 25 minutes. Most of the dive was spent on the deck at 140ft so I didn't see any need to expand the deco. But I was curious what Henry would do if I over stayed the stop?
I overstayed for 5 minutes and there was no question of the deco time. Henry thought I was adding the time on due to the extended bottom time. During the debrief we discussed asking questions when the plan is not being followed. I've been debating the stop watch vs. bottom timer deco question in my head and I believe that the stopwatch is better. I'll save that dissertation for another blog post.
Next dive was the Almirante. Henry wanted some time driving the boat so Jody, David, and I teamed up. The wreck was beautiful and the visibility exceptional. We landed at the stern, I prepped my camera and scootered around to the starboard side.
I ran head on into a school of horse-eye jacks. They pulled up hard to get out of the way of the big black object scootering right at them. Running down the side I noticed want makes this wreck so different. Usually the cargo hold plates fall out away from the wreck when it comes apart. The starboard side of then wreck has been push in and flattened like God stopped the wreck like an Aluminium can?
While deep in thought, I almost missed the three Eagle Rays flying over our heads. I turned down the prop pitch to full power and started a pursuit with my camera! Out of the corner of my eye I saw a white flash? I had cut into the middle of the squad and the 4th ray turned 90 degrees and headed up to the bow. The other three made two quick flaps of their wings and were out of sight immediately. I knew that following them with a Gavin was at their discretion. They have much more power. Picking up the 4th ray it circled back over the wreck and then left us behind with the same quick flap of the wings.
At the bow I dropped down to look the hull metal. The explosion that sunk the Almirante peeled the hull plates back like a banana. They used to use big explosions to sink reefs wit ha a big show. The problem was they destroyed the wrecks of the quick flood of water caused them to sink at wrong angles. Now there are much slower and precise about completely flooding the ship and putting her down upright without the 4th of July show.
At the bow I stopped to admire the impression growth of deepwater sea fans on the winch. It is a good 7 ft tall and thick. I'm glad no anchors have cut thru it. It is beautiful.
We headed back towards the stern. I saw a swim thru big enough to scooter thru. Inside I waved David over to the skylights to frame him. He came in and followed up thru.
Outside I stopped and turned to get the exiting diver shot. Jody was looking away, but David made a good pose. I think I need to send this one to George for the Gavin Scooter Website.
I grabbed a few photo of Creole Wrasse and Chub at the stern. David thumbed the dive 2 minutes ahead of schedule. After a long debate, David declared himself innocent of the early thumb! Never tell a German his is wrong!
Sunday, June 08, 2008
Sunday June 8th we took the boys to the beach for the first time. Click the photo to see the rest of the photos on flickr. It takes Ev and Nat a while to warm up to the water and have fun. They are very clingy at first. But by the end they were loving it and we had to drag them out.
The park is great as the lagoon is salt water, but protected from the waves. There is a thick Palm Tree Ring around the outside the provides abundant shade for playing in the sand. Everyone still gets coated in sunblock.
It was fun to hang out with Mike, Leya, Fabia, and Sergio. Some of Andrea's coworkers came out from the bank as well.
Old Navy has nylon swing shirts to keep some of the sun off the boys. They work great and we really like them!
July 14th we start swimming lessons!
The park is great as the lagoon is salt water, but protected from the waves. There is a thick Palm Tree Ring around the outside the provides abundant shade for playing in the sand. Everyone still gets coated in sunblock.
It was fun to hang out with Mike, Leya, Fabia, and Sergio. Some of Andrea's coworkers came out from the bank as well.
Old Navy has nylon swing shirts to keep some of the sun off the boys. They work great and we really like them!
July 14th we start swimming lessons!
Saturday, May 31, 2008
Memorial Day Weekend
We took our first plane flight with the kids to Earlville Iowa over Memorial day weekend. It was not what I expected. What I feared, was actually easy like dropping off and getting thru security. What was hard was the actually flight. We got seats together naturally. On the plane we had to reorganize. Turns out on a Canadian Air Regional Jet there is one extra O2 mask on the right "CD" side of the plane in the even numbered rows for infants traveling on the lap. Fortunately the other passengers were very nice about re-seating and passing bottles back and forth thru the odd numbered row. Everett slept most of the way and had no problems landing as he sucked his pacifier. Nathan was more squirmy, but made friends with the flight attendants and worked all the latched in the galley after the drink service. He had a real hard time with his ears on the landing as he wouldn't drink anything or suck his taggie.
It was interesting having two cribs and a king size bed in one room. The first day we made a road trip to the Coral ville Mall to meet Jen Emerson and Donovan. We had a great time shopping and chasing the boys around the play yard. We had a wonderful time comparing parenting notes and catching up. Jen introduced grapes to Ev and Nat and now they eat them by the pound every day!
Troy had a big graduation party. There were sloppy joes, bbq pork, and all the fixings. Lousie and Dale did a great job decorating the garage with all of Troys accomplishments and pictures from every grade of school.
Ev was not feeling well and let everyone know thru a few involuntary protein spills.
We were able to see all the Hoelscher boys, Neil, Louis, Aaron, Erin, Audrey and Colton.
That night we drove home trying to beat the rain. We spent an hour in the downstairs of the hotel for the tornado warning. A small one touched down outside of Earlville. Further west got hit really bad.
The next day we went for a drive in the morning. We stopped by Plum Creek Park, one of my favorite childhood memories was pumping water from an old well. The handle is long gone but the pump itself is still there. I also snapped a few photos of the old rusted bridge over the river.
Then we drove out to the trout farm outside Manchester. DNR grows baby trout to release in the streams. Andrea had a great time watching them go into a freenzy as we tossed in the food. The boys slept thru the whole thing. We walked across the suspended bridge and down the stream.
We went into Manchester and drove by our old home. There is a Norwegian Maple like the one planted for my baptism that was close to the same size. I remember being terrified to go down the tornado slide by myself. The old rusting slide doesn't seem so scary now. I bet the boys would love it. We didn't stop due rain.
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3280/2537955996_d6a9e496f6.jpg
We ran out to Greely Iowa to look at the feed plant Wayne used to manage. Cargill Sold it and now it looks abandoned. On the way back to my sisters we stopped for a few token cow photos. Ever since I asked the bus driver to stop for a hairy coo "cow" photo in Scotland, we have to stop and take pics of cows. After a few photos, they all got up and started over to have their picture taken. Andrea loved it!
We took our first plane flight with the kids to Earlville Iowa over Memorial day weekend. It was not what I expected. What I feared, was actually easy like dropping off and getting thru security. What was hard was the actually flight. We got seats together naturally. On the plane we had to reorganize. Turns out on a Canadian Air Regional Jet there is one extra O2 mask on the right "CD" side of the plane in the even numbered rows for infants traveling on the lap. Fortunately the other passengers were very nice about re-seating and passing bottles back and forth thru the odd numbered row. Everett slept most of the way and had no problems landing as he sucked his pacifier. Nathan was more squirmy, but made friends with the flight attendants and worked all the latched in the galley after the drink service. He had a real hard time with his ears on the landing as he wouldn't drink anything or suck his taggie.
It was interesting having two cribs and a king size bed in one room. The first day we made a road trip to the Coral ville Mall to meet Jen Emerson and Donovan. We had a great time shopping and chasing the boys around the play yard. We had a wonderful time comparing parenting notes and catching up. Jen introduced grapes to Ev and Nat and now they eat them by the pound every day!
Troy had a big graduation party. There were sloppy joes, bbq pork, and all the fixings. Lousie and Dale did a great job decorating the garage with all of Troys accomplishments and pictures from every grade of school.
Ev was not feeling well and let everyone know thru a few involuntary protein spills.
We were able to see all the Hoelscher boys, Neil, Louis, Aaron, Erin, Audrey and Colton.
That night we drove home trying to beat the rain. We spent an hour in the downstairs of the hotel for the tornado warning. A small one touched down outside of Earlville. Further west got hit really bad.
The next day we went for a drive in the morning. We stopped by Plum Creek Park, one of my favorite childhood memories was pumping water from an old well. The handle is long gone but the pump itself is still there. I also snapped a few photos of the old rusted bridge over the river.
Then we drove out to the trout farm outside Manchester. DNR grows baby trout to release in the streams. Andrea had a great time watching them go into a freenzy as we tossed in the food. The boys slept thru the whole thing. We walked across the suspended bridge and down the stream.
We went into Manchester and drove by our old home. There is a Norwegian Maple like the one planted for my baptism that was close to the same size. I remember being terrified to go down the tornado slide by myself. The old rusting slide doesn't seem so scary now. I bet the boys would love it. We didn't stop due rain.
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3280/2537955996_d6a9e496f6.jpg
We ran out to Greely Iowa to look at the feed plant Wayne used to manage. Cargill Sold it and now it looks abandoned. On the way back to my sisters we stopped for a few token cow photos. Ever since I asked the bus driver to stop for a hairy coo "cow" photo in Scotland, we have to stop and take pics of cows. After a few photos, they all got up and started over to have their picture taken. Andrea loved it!
Saturday, May 17, 2008
South Point Water Tower Wreck Dive
It was a great day for diving with seas at 1-2 ft. We all arrived early, the show time was 8AM and by 8:10 AM we were full throttle heading North. 25 minutes later we were on site. There was blue water and no current. We gear up and dropped in. A cool rush of water hit my right sleeve and I knew this was to be my first wet dry suit dive. I couldn't find the leak, it didn't feel like a high flow so I continued the dive. We ok'd at 20ft and headed down. To the North there were a large school of blue runners and bar jacks. I good sign we were near the wreck. This is one of two wrecks I've missed in my life time. At 100ft I could see sand and started working on which way to go. There was a shadow to the North where the fish had been so I knew we were close. We started scootering North at 130ft and soon we were over the barge.
The barge lies East to West with the water tower on the East side. All the debris in the barge is lying on the East side. We scootered West to see what was left on that side? A small Southern Stingray lifted off and went into a sharp climb up the wall of the barge to the freedom of the open ocean. Nothing was lying in wait under the sloped edge of the barge.
Scootering down the North side of the barge the Red Octocoral was bright and vibrant. I found a worm crawled up tight in the branches. I couldn't identify it. Juvenile Sunshine fish were tucked into the triangular corners of beam propped up on concrete culverts.
Looking up over the lip on the barge, bait fish schooled above the alien like dome structure. Except for portholes, circles are quite rare underwater, especially one that are 50ft or so in diameter.
The tower was originally welded onto the deck of the barge when it sank. I'm guessing the side with debris filled with water faster and listed causing all the material to go that side on the way down. The sinking and impact with the ocean floor caused the tower to break its welds and roll off the East side into the sand where it lays today.
One side of the water tower dome is crushed and there is a big rip. It looks like one of the support beams punctured and ripped a 1ft wide and 10ft long tear up the bottom. As we swam around I was going to enter from the top, but backed off. That would ruin the visibility before I got to the bottom to get a shot looking back up. I scootered down around to the side and went up from a bottom opening. The last time I dove this I didn't notice the walkway around the middle of the tower. It is now facing down indicating that the tower is upside down.
Looking up at the light in the rounded patter is very unique experience in wreck diving. Going into a large round enclosed area is an empty feeling. Cave-like, but better as there are blue windows around at the 6 points of the circle. Down in the corner with the tear, I notice a Reef Butterfly fish. My glance was going to move on until it stopped and paused, the shape of that fish was angled, not oval. I went down for a closer look. It was a Bank Butterfly fish!
They are uncommon in Florida and are more easily seen beyond safe diving limits. They range from 65ft-550ft in depth. There were at the sand at 175ft. They moved back under a ledge as I approached. I re-adjusted my strobe to get a flash on plain with my camera. After three frustrating shots I felt the task loaded focus take over where a diver blocks out his team, gas, depth and focuses on the task at hand. This is the feeling that causes divers to run out of gas trying to bag one last bug or spear one last fish.
One more shot and I let go of the desire to take a great photo. My team was right there looking at me and I checked my time (3 minutes to go) and gas ( 400 psi until rock bottom). I scooter up to my team and tried to get a shot of them with the strange window behind them. I exited first and turned to get an "coming out of the wreck" photo of the team. Taking the photo of David, I didn't notice the thumb he was throwing on the way out. I turned and saw Jody's and got the point. I secured the camera and we headed up.
David lead a perfect deco and started working on the "Jewfish boom". Its a great attention/acknowledgment underwater. I unusually use three booms for attention and two for acknowledgment. It is particularly helpful in three man teams when the middle guy is blocking the view from first team member to the third. We also hold our hands our flat and make an exaggerated "C" shape indicating it is time to move up 10 ft in our decompression.
I love it when there is no current and great visibility so that we can ascend off the wreck and get the "big picture" as we make our deep stops. The deco gas switch and bag shoot went off perfectly. The line was straight up and down the whole way. Andrea was right there with the boat to pick us up.
An hour later Jody and David dropped on the Number 7 Barge and scootered to the Army Tanks, Antenna Towers, and ended up at the Patricia. They buzzed the open water divers from the Big-Com-Ocean and avoided being shot from a gaggle of free diving speros that anchored on the Patricia and spread out from there. They had a good 40 minutes on the trigger around these sites.
After scouting the Virgina Key Bridge Cut and channel on the baby boat, he decided to try it in the big boat. There is a channel marker at the beginning, but that's it. The rest was following the GPS at 30 MPH staying in the 7ft section and out of the 2ft section. The bridge itself has two Manatee "No Wake" signs to the left of the channel. Most people would instinctively go between the signs. I looked up to see the channel markers were turned off, but on the section to the right on the bridge. After clearing the no wake zone, Jody opened the twin 350hp V8 Yamaha's to full throttle. I was joking with him that something was wrong because we were only doing 49 mph with 3 sets of doubles, deco bottles, stages, and 4 Gavins. He worked the trim tabs and motor tilt until we reached 50 mph!
It was a great day for diving with seas at 1-2 ft. We all arrived early, the show time was 8AM and by 8:10 AM we were full throttle heading North. 25 minutes later we were on site. There was blue water and no current. We gear up and dropped in. A cool rush of water hit my right sleeve and I knew this was to be my first wet dry suit dive. I couldn't find the leak, it didn't feel like a high flow so I continued the dive. We ok'd at 20ft and headed down. To the North there were a large school of blue runners and bar jacks. I good sign we were near the wreck. This is one of two wrecks I've missed in my life time. At 100ft I could see sand and started working on which way to go. There was a shadow to the North where the fish had been so I knew we were close. We started scootering North at 130ft and soon we were over the barge.
The barge lies East to West with the water tower on the East side. All the debris in the barge is lying on the East side. We scootered West to see what was left on that side? A small Southern Stingray lifted off and went into a sharp climb up the wall of the barge to the freedom of the open ocean. Nothing was lying in wait under the sloped edge of the barge.
Scootering down the North side of the barge the Red Octocoral was bright and vibrant. I found a worm crawled up tight in the branches. I couldn't identify it. Juvenile Sunshine fish were tucked into the triangular corners of beam propped up on concrete culverts.
Looking up over the lip on the barge, bait fish schooled above the alien like dome structure. Except for portholes, circles are quite rare underwater, especially one that are 50ft or so in diameter.
The tower was originally welded onto the deck of the barge when it sank. I'm guessing the side with debris filled with water faster and listed causing all the material to go that side on the way down. The sinking and impact with the ocean floor caused the tower to break its welds and roll off the East side into the sand where it lays today.
One side of the water tower dome is crushed and there is a big rip. It looks like one of the support beams punctured and ripped a 1ft wide and 10ft long tear up the bottom. As we swam around I was going to enter from the top, but backed off. That would ruin the visibility before I got to the bottom to get a shot looking back up. I scootered down around to the side and went up from a bottom opening. The last time I dove this I didn't notice the walkway around the middle of the tower. It is now facing down indicating that the tower is upside down.
Looking up at the light in the rounded patter is very unique experience in wreck diving. Going into a large round enclosed area is an empty feeling. Cave-like, but better as there are blue windows around at the 6 points of the circle. Down in the corner with the tear, I notice a Reef Butterfly fish. My glance was going to move on until it stopped and paused, the shape of that fish was angled, not oval. I went down for a closer look. It was a Bank Butterfly fish!
They are uncommon in Florida and are more easily seen beyond safe diving limits. They range from 65ft-550ft in depth. There were at the sand at 175ft. They moved back under a ledge as I approached. I re-adjusted my strobe to get a flash on plain with my camera. After three frustrating shots I felt the task loaded focus take over where a diver blocks out his team, gas, depth and focuses on the task at hand. This is the feeling that causes divers to run out of gas trying to bag one last bug or spear one last fish.
One more shot and I let go of the desire to take a great photo. My team was right there looking at me and I checked my time (3 minutes to go) and gas ( 400 psi until rock bottom). I scooter up to my team and tried to get a shot of them with the strange window behind them. I exited first and turned to get an "coming out of the wreck" photo of the team. Taking the photo of David, I didn't notice the thumb he was throwing on the way out. I turned and saw Jody's and got the point. I secured the camera and we headed up.
David lead a perfect deco and started working on the "Jewfish boom". Its a great attention/acknowledgment underwater. I unusually use three booms for attention and two for acknowledgment. It is particularly helpful in three man teams when the middle guy is blocking the view from first team member to the third. We also hold our hands our flat and make an exaggerated "C" shape indicating it is time to move up 10 ft in our decompression.
I love it when there is no current and great visibility so that we can ascend off the wreck and get the "big picture" as we make our deep stops. The deco gas switch and bag shoot went off perfectly. The line was straight up and down the whole way. Andrea was right there with the boat to pick us up.
An hour later Jody and David dropped on the Number 7 Barge and scootered to the Army Tanks, Antenna Towers, and ended up at the Patricia. They buzzed the open water divers from the Big-Com-Ocean and avoided being shot from a gaggle of free diving speros that anchored on the Patricia and spread out from there. They had a good 40 minutes on the trigger around these sites.
After scouting the Virgina Key Bridge Cut and channel on the baby boat, he decided to try it in the big boat. There is a channel marker at the beginning, but that's it. The rest was following the GPS at 30 MPH staying in the 7ft section and out of the 2ft section. The bridge itself has two Manatee "No Wake" signs to the left of the channel. Most people would instinctively go between the signs. I looked up to see the channel markers were turned off, but on the section to the right on the bridge. After clearing the no wake zone, Jody opened the twin 350hp V8 Yamaha's to full throttle. I was joking with him that something was wrong because we were only doing 49 mph with 3 sets of doubles, deco bottles, stages, and 4 Gavins. He worked the trim tabs and motor tilt until we reached 50 mph!
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
The Catholic Church has a new list of the 7 Modern Mortal Sins
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7287071.stm
Here's the Highlights:
===================
The Vatican has brought up to date the traditional seven deadly sins by adding seven modern mortal sins it claims are becoming prevalent in what it calls an era of "unstoppable globalisation".
Those newly risking eternal punishment include drug pushers, the obscenely wealthy, and scientists who manipulate human genes. So "thou shalt not carry out morally dubious scientific experiments" or "thou shalt not pollute the earth" might one day be added to the Ten Commandments.
MODERN EVILS
Environmental pollution
Genetic manipulation
Accumulating excessive wealth
Inflicting poverty
Drug trafficking and consumption
Morally debatable experiments
Violation of fundamental rights of human nature
The Catechism of the Catholic Church states that "immediately after death the souls of those who die in a state of mortal sin descend into Hell".
*snip*
ORIGINAL DEADLY SINS
Pride
Envy
Gluttony
Lust
Anger
Greed
Sloth
==========================================
The first thought in my mind was, "Wow, think of all the new horror / serial killer movie plots writers in hollywood can come up with. I loved the movie "Seven" so now they can make the sequal "14" or "The New Seven".
Interesting how the originals were one word. Now they are two to three words. And still there is a lot of room for debate.
What is "Excessive Wealth" or "Drug Consumption"?
Wouldn't the Catholic Church itself fall under the "Excessive Wealth" rule? And wealth is realitive. Ask a poor person working at McDonalds in the USA if they are wealthy and they would say, "no." But compare them to poor countries where people live on a dollar a day and they live like kings.
Is using Viagra purchased off an email without a condom (or any other controls) to make more Catholic babies a mortal sin?
Ok, forget about movie plots this list is will keep comedians busy for YEARS to come.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7287071.stm
Here's the Highlights:
===================
The Vatican has brought up to date the traditional seven deadly sins by adding seven modern mortal sins it claims are becoming prevalent in what it calls an era of "unstoppable globalisation".
Those newly risking eternal punishment include drug pushers, the obscenely wealthy, and scientists who manipulate human genes. So "thou shalt not carry out morally dubious scientific experiments" or "thou shalt not pollute the earth" might one day be added to the Ten Commandments.
MODERN EVILS
Environmental pollution
Genetic manipulation
Accumulating excessive wealth
Inflicting poverty
Drug trafficking and consumption
Morally debatable experiments
Violation of fundamental rights of human nature
The Catechism of the Catholic Church states that "immediately after death the souls of those who die in a state of mortal sin descend into Hell".
*snip*
ORIGINAL DEADLY SINS
Pride
Envy
Gluttony
Lust
Anger
Greed
Sloth
==========================================
The first thought in my mind was, "Wow, think of all the new horror / serial killer movie plots writers in hollywood can come up with. I loved the movie "Seven" so now they can make the sequal "14" or "The New Seven".
Interesting how the originals were one word. Now they are two to three words. And still there is a lot of room for debate.
What is "Excessive Wealth" or "Drug Consumption"?
Wouldn't the Catholic Church itself fall under the "Excessive Wealth" rule? And wealth is realitive. Ask a poor person working at McDonalds in the USA if they are wealthy and they would say, "no." But compare them to poor countries where people live on a dollar a day and they live like kings.
Is using Viagra purchased off an email without a condom (or any other controls) to make more Catholic babies a mortal sin?
Ok, forget about movie plots this list is will keep comedians busy for YEARS to come.
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
I had a rough night in drawing class. Abstract landscape in charcoal was above my current level of creativity. Fortunately my new instructor talked me into giving up on the mountains and just focus on the tree in the foreground. Ah, the tree. it came out much nicer.
I've also be studying investing in Options and reading quite a bit about the credit/sub-prime meltdown. This "post-it Note" art on Flickr was found at an ideal emotional moment in my life. It summed up my frustration very well.
Next class will be mixed media between photographes and drawing so I think I'll have a fightening emotional chance! Plus it was hard for one art teacher to fullfil another art teachers lesson plans. Next week it will be all Judy.
Friday, April 25, 2008
Happy 33rd Birthday to me!
Nikon Monarch ATB binoculars 10 x 42 DCF Optic reviews - CNET Reviews
Now that we've had such fun bird watching. I felt better asking Andrea for a better set of binoculars (bins) for my Birthday. Like anything I wanted to try it before investing into the hobby. The older bins from West Marine are now in my car as the emergency back up pair while traveling on business.
Bird watching is a great hobby hedge against diving. I see birds when out to sea. When its too windy to dive, it makes for a great day to go to the Everglades with the breeze to cool you off.
Also after using the cheap ones, I can appreciate the more expensive ones. I've going from $40 to $80 to $300 bins. Next stop will be the $2000 Sikorsky. :)
They are also great for enjoying the emotions of the opera singers from the $20 balcony seats instead of the $150 ones upfront. We are going to Julius Cesar this Saturday night.
Nikon Monarch ATB binoculars 10 x 42 DCF Optic reviews - CNET Reviews
Now that we've had such fun bird watching. I felt better asking Andrea for a better set of binoculars (bins) for my Birthday. Like anything I wanted to try it before investing into the hobby. The older bins from West Marine are now in my car as the emergency back up pair while traveling on business.
Bird watching is a great hobby hedge against diving. I see birds when out to sea. When its too windy to dive, it makes for a great day to go to the Everglades with the breeze to cool you off.
Also after using the cheap ones, I can appreciate the more expensive ones. I've going from $40 to $80 to $300 bins. Next stop will be the $2000 Sikorsky. :)
They are also great for enjoying the emotions of the opera singers from the $20 balcony seats instead of the $150 ones upfront. We are going to Julius Cesar this Saturday night.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Our housing-bubble hangover - MSN Money: "Our housing-bubble hangover
All those interest-rate cuts aren't making it any easier for the average Joe to afford a house. There's no simple remedy for the aftermath of a borrowing binge."
Wall Street - Bear Stearns - JPMorgan Chase - Ben Bernanke - Jamie Dimon - New York Times: "Bleakonomics"
Since taking my investment course, I've been following a lot more about what is going on in the economy. Like any sporting event, its not fun unless you keep score. Now that I have a home, 401K and investments, I care what is going on. Right now I'm sitting in cash and money markets as the economy drops that past six months.
If you don't understand what is going on, the two articles above do of good job of explaining the current situation and its effects.
Now that the word "recession" is coming out, it will be big news, the question is when will the recovery start. It will happen long before the news "reports" its occurrence.
Generally a recession takes a 30% cut out of the Dow Jones. Right now its been hovering around 15% off at 12,500. I'm looking for it to hit 11,500 as a signal that the truth has set in. The great thing about the market is the truth has little to do with it.
I'd love to read your opinions on this subject?
--Matt
All those interest-rate cuts aren't making it any easier for the average Joe to afford a house. There's no simple remedy for the aftermath of a borrowing binge."
Wall Street - Bear Stearns - JPMorgan Chase - Ben Bernanke - Jamie Dimon - New York Times: "Bleakonomics"
Since taking my investment course, I've been following a lot more about what is going on in the economy. Like any sporting event, its not fun unless you keep score. Now that I have a home, 401K and investments, I care what is going on. Right now I'm sitting in cash and money markets as the economy drops that past six months.
If you don't understand what is going on, the two articles above do of good job of explaining the current situation and its effects.
Now that the word "recession" is coming out, it will be big news, the question is when will the recovery start. It will happen long before the news "reports" its occurrence.
Generally a recession takes a 30% cut out of the Dow Jones. Right now its been hovering around 15% off at 12,500. I'm looking for it to hit 11,500 as a signal that the truth has set in. The great thing about the market is the truth has little to do with it.
I'd love to read your opinions on this subject?
--Matt
Sunday, April 20, 2008
I found my two caterpillars! There were "hanging around" on the other side of wall. The sunny side, I read upon the process on Wikipedia. The caterpillars finished off several stocks of milkweed and then entered the "Pupa" stage to become butterflies. This takes about two weeks, but the end of the process is the most fascinating.
They break out of the silk cocoon in the morning so the sun will dry the new wings. They have to "pump" liquid from the body into the channels in the new wings to make them strong. They practice flying around in circles and then take off.
Saturday morning I went out to check on them and there was nothing left be an empty shell. They were gone by 11 AM.
I have not seen this process since I was a little child in Earleville Iowa. This first round out of the garden has been great fun and I hope it starts to happen so much I grow bored of it!
They break out of the silk cocoon in the morning so the sun will dry the new wings. They have to "pump" liquid from the body into the channels in the new wings to make them strong. They practice flying around in circles and then take off.
Saturday morning I went out to check on them and there was nothing left be an empty shell. They were gone by 11 AM.
I have not seen this process since I was a little child in Earleville Iowa. This first round out of the garden has been great fun and I hope it starts to happen so much I grow bored of it!
My first garden pests, the Aphid. They had taken over all the stalks of my Scarlett Milkweed. They don't do much harm, but they make a mess of things and eventually a lady bug will come along and start munching on these little guys. I didn't have the patience for that. So I took my favorite scuba diving multi tool (defog, leak detector, drysuit seal lubricate, shampoo, body wash) and sprayed it on the aphids killing them as well.
My first application took at 90% or so of the little buggers. I hosed them off while watering tonight. I'll check the plants out tomorrow to finish of the few die hards.
Who knew a squirt bottle of baby shampoo and water could be so useful!
I do have to be careful and not spray any caterpillars or larva as it will kill them too. I haven't seem my two caterpillars recently so I'm not concerned.
My first application took at 90% or so of the little buggers. I hosed them off while watering tonight. I'll check the plants out tomorrow to finish of the few die hards.
Who knew a squirt bottle of baby shampoo and water could be so useful!
I do have to be careful and not spray any caterpillars or larva as it will kill them too. I haven't seem my two caterpillars recently so I'm not concerned.
My stitches were taken out on Thursday. Everything is heeling nicely. I have 70% of the power back in my hand. Opening my hand all the way or over extending it really causes pain. Also tapping the palm of my hand causes some shooting pain and tingling. If I don't do that, everything is just fine. That just means I have to steer clear of little boys kicking the legs with hard shoes on! I also have to avoid setting the boys down in their crib or on the floor.
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Stitches Macro
Sorry I couldn't resist posting a photo of my incision from the CTS Release. The pain is minor and its not as bad as I thought it would be. I just have a hard time remembering that I have not power in that hand. Untwisting jars and opening things is the hardest. I can pick up the boys, but putting Nathan down today really stressed something out and tweaked me good.
The pain is really based on the incision in my hand healing. I can open my hand, but when I reach the point of needing muscles or room the stretch it starts to hurt. My wrist is still slightly black and blue, but it is feeling much better.
I can shower and wash the wound, but I have to keep in a dry during the day. I enjoyed going 5 days without a shower. Its something I can't remember the last time I did. I did sneak in a haircut and get an shampoo at the halfway point.
Looking at my hand I feel like a stunt double for Frankenstein. I can observe it objectively without a problem. When I start to think of it as "my" hand, it starts to weird me out in my head.
Wednesday I get the stitches taken out. Andrea told me that it won't be painful, but I will "feel" the thread coming out. I'll have to brave it out and write more on the experience.
The cool thing is learning all the things I can do with my left hand. I haven't had any problems moving the mouse to my left hand. The biggest accomplishment was learning how to, um, *cough* clean myself left handed. Brushing my teeth feels really weird, but I got the hang of that too. I can still write softly. Try using your other hand for everything for a day. Its fun!
The pain is really based on the incision in my hand healing. I can open my hand, but when I reach the point of needing muscles or room the stretch it starts to hurt. My wrist is still slightly black and blue, but it is feeling much better.
I can shower and wash the wound, but I have to keep in a dry during the day. I enjoyed going 5 days without a shower. Its something I can't remember the last time I did. I did sneak in a haircut and get an shampoo at the halfway point.
Looking at my hand I feel like a stunt double for Frankenstein. I can observe it objectively without a problem. When I start to think of it as "my" hand, it starts to weird me out in my head.
Wednesday I get the stitches taken out. Andrea told me that it won't be painful, but I will "feel" the thread coming out. I'll have to brave it out and write more on the experience.
The cool thing is learning all the things I can do with my left hand. I haven't had any problems moving the mouse to my left hand. The biggest accomplishment was learning how to, um, *cough* clean myself left handed. Brushing my teeth feels really weird, but I got the hang of that too. I can still write softly. Try using your other hand for everything for a day. Its fun!
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